0x1bcb...435c

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.37
Potential payout: $56.23
Potential profit: $55.87
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$4.63

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.18
Potential payout: $27.04
Potential profit: $26.86
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $3.28
Potential payout: $24.26
Potential profit: $20.99
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$0.72

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $22.59
Potential payout: $22.62
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $0.59

Yes position

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.51
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$0.84

Yes position

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $16.01
Potential payout: $16.02
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $13.42
Potential payout: $15.7
Potential profit: $2.28
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $2

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 97%
Current value: $12.25
Potential payout: $12.63
Potential profit: $0.39
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $0.31
Potential payout: $12.15
Potential profit: $11.84
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$2.69

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $0.34
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $10.77
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: -$0.66

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $0.72
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $10.39
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $10.67
Potential profit: $10.46
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$1.79

Yes position

Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.9
Potential profit: $9.9
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $8.54
Potential payout: $8.59
Potential profit: $0.06
User PnL: $2.79

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $8.33
Potential profit: $8.28
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.95

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $0.46
Potential payout: $8.33
Potential profit: $7.87
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.54

Yes position

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $0.09
Potential payout: $7.14
Potential profit: $7.05
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: -$0.91

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $6.19
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $0.06
User PnL: $0.42

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $0.47
Potential payout: $5.88
Potential profit: $5.41
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$0.53

Yes position

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $1.23
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $3.78
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $4.53
Potential payout: $4.68
Potential profit: $0.15
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30?

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $4.17
Potential profit: $4
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $4.17
Potential profit: $3.52
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$0.35

Yes position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $0.91
Potential payout: $3.7
Potential profit: $2.8
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$0.09

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.7

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.28

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.81

Yes position

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.68

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.98

No position

Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.85

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.91

Yes position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.99

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.99

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.58

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.23

Yes position

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.22

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.03

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.63

Yes position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.6

No position

Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.47

No position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.39

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.24

Yes position

Major US official out by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.92

Bahrain position

Spread: Bahrain (-2.5)

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $0.71

No position

Epstein suicide note released by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.69

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.52

Yes position

Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?