TheWolfOfPoly

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $481.75
Potential payout: $23.5K
Potential profit: $23.02K
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: $387.35

Yes position

Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $196.99
Potential payout: $11.26K
Potential profit: $11.06K
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: $151.77

Yes position

Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $82.5
Potential payout: $11K
Potential profit: $10.92K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $40.62

Yes position

Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $165
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.84K
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $124.83

Yes position

Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $85
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.92K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: $44.83

Yes position

Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $65
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.94K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $24.83

Yes position

Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.56K
Potential profit: $1.56K
User PnL: -$89.79

Yes position

Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $6.95
Potential payout: $1.55K
Potential profit: $1.54K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$17.33

Yes position

Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $3.76
Potential payout: $941.23
Potential profit: $937.46
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $8.87
Potential payout: $771.44
Potential profit: $762.57
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$6.56

Yes position

Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $8.81
Potential payout: $534.05
Potential profit: $525.24
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$135.53

Yes position

Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.6
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $399.4
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$3.8

Yes position

Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$24

Yes position

Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $6.6
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $193.4
Multiplier: 30.30x
User PnL: -$19.4

Yes position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $164.7
Potential payout: $183
Potential profit: $18.3
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $48.23

Yes position

Another Elon baby by June 30?

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $6.76
Potential payout: $132.89
Potential profit: $126.13
Multiplier: 19.65x
User PnL: -$25.13

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 12.6%
Current value: $7.56
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $52.44
Multiplier: 7.94x
User PnL: $6.34

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $2.12
Potential payout: $55.06
Potential profit: $52.94
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: $0.96

Yes position

Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?

Ends Jan 3, 2027

Implied probability: 31.5%
Current value: $15.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $34.25
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: -$3.25

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 7.3%
Current value: $3.28
Potential payout: $45.28
Potential profit: $42
Multiplier: 13.79x
User PnL: $0.48

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $1.82
Potential payout: $41
Potential profit: $39.18
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $34.46
Potential profit: $34.31
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$4.89

Yes position

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $12.7
Potential payout: $28.54
Potential profit: $15.84
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: -$4.32

Yes position

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $6.01
Potential payout: $23.58
Potential profit: $17.57
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$3.35

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.09K

Yes position

New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $49.9K

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $45.89K

Tate position

Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor

Ends Dec 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $24.26K

No position

US government shutdown by October 1?

Ends Oct 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $19.49K

Yes position

Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $16.62K

No position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $16.26K

No position

Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?

Ends Dec 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.8K

No position

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.99K

No position

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.34K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.05K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.87K

No position

Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.24K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.65K

No position

Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.17K

No position

Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.88K

Yes position

Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with UK Prime Minister on September 18?

Ends Sep 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.73K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.01K

No position

Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.46K

Yes position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.1K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?

Ends Jan 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.02K

No position

Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.99K

Yes position

US-China trade deal before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.78K

Yes position

Macron out in 2025?