No position
Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $254.31
- Potential payout
- $281.01
- Potential profit
- $26.7
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $9.21
Polymarket Trader
0x7a28z1
0x1c79abdf874842dbe042734b086acb918b2cc259
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $811.31
- Realized PnL
- $2.68K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $185
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $15
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $3
No position
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $185
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $15
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1
No position
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $187
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $13
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $117.96
- Potential profit
- $117.96
- User PnL
- -$39.01
No position
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $43.1
- Potential profit
- $43.1
- User PnL
- -$27.33
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 24?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $34
- Potential profit
- $34
- User PnL
- -$2.72
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25.09
- Potential profit
- $25.09
- User PnL
- -$3.22
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$13
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.07
- Potential profit
- $24.07
- User PnL
- -$16.15
No position
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on March 23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24
- Potential profit
- $24
- User PnL
- -$13.2
No position
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on March 24?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.22
- Potential profit
- $22.22
- User PnL
- -$12.22
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17
- Potential profit
- $17
- User PnL
- -$1.11
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 24?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $15
- User PnL
- -$5.85
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 24?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $15
- User PnL
- -$11.7
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$3.15
No position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$3.85
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $893.76
No position
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $590.87
Yes position
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $314.12
Yes position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.55
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $87.77
Yes position
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.96
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.72
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.25
No position
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.4
No position
VEO 4 released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.11
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.28
No position
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.84
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.46
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on March 19?
Ends Mar 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.66
No position
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.27
No position
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.95
No position
VEO 4 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.38
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.08
No position
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 22-23°F on March 17?
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.83
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 17?
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.46
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.65
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 19?
Ends Mar 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 19?
Ends Mar 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.3
No position
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 17?
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.12
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No 90% 20 shares
- Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No 90% 46 shares
- Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No 91% 200 shares
- Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No 92% 200 shares
- Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No 94% 200 shares
- Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No 86.4% 215.01 shares
- Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?Yes 94% 32 shares
- Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Yes 93% 86 shares
- Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?Yes 94% 43 shares
- Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Yes 92.1% 66 shares
- Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Yes 92% 58 shares
- Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Yes 91.7% 10 shares