0x1Ca59B4088339065440836b425c586F02C9480F5-1769958266039

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $2.83
Potential payout: $12.56
Potential profit: $9.74
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $2.94
Potential payout: $11.1
Potential profit: $8.16
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $5.25
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $4.75
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by December 31?

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $5.25
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $4.75
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $2.55
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $7.45
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 34.4%
Current value: $3.44
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $6.56
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will Trump say "State of the Art" in July?

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $6.55
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $3.45
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $2.75

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $5.15
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $4.85
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$0.15

No position

Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?

Implied probability: 31%
Current value: $3.1
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $6.9
Multiplier: 3.23x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $1.8
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $8.2
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$0.1

No position

Will T1 win MSI 2026?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $7.85
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $2.15
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 54%
Current value: $5.4
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $4.6
Multiplier: 1.85x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $5.15
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $4.85
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $4.85
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $5.15
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $7.25
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $2.75
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $7.35
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $2.65
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $4.26
Potential payout: $9.36
Potential profit: $5.1
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $1.04
Potential payout: $1.91
Potential profit: $0.87
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $0.48
Potential payout: $1.32
Potential profit: $0.84
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will Trump say "Six Seven" in July?

Implied probability: 51%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $1.28
Potential profit: $0.63
Multiplier: 1.96x
User PnL: $0.37

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.6

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.96

No position

Will Democratic House incumbents not win in fewer than three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 90.1%
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $11.4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.17

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.08

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.73

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.96

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.41

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.98

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.93

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.83

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.62

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.61

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.6

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.29

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.14

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.68

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.46

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.23

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.22

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.04

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.01

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.89

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET