Polymarket Trader

scarydairyraspberry

0x1d330b1a2d9b29937121c912f39b45952ae891ad

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.02K
Realized PnL: $14.15K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $1.1K
User PnL: -$251

Yes position

Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $912.83
Potential profit: $912.83
User PnL: -$174.13

Yes position

Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $2.91
Potential payout: $830
Potential profit: $827.1
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$2.08

Yes position

Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $583.67
Potential profit: $583.67
User PnL: -$350

No position

Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $462.96
Potential profit: $462.96
User PnL: -$300

No position

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $430
Potential profit: $430
User PnL: -$353.2

No position

Will there be a perfect NCAA bracket?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $400
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $6.4

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $7.2
Potential payout: $320
Potential profit: $312.8
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: $2.08

Yes position

Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Ends Dec 17, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $303.84
Potential profit: $303.84
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $285.71
Potential profit: $285.71
User PnL: -$16

No position

Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $218
Potential profit: $218
User PnL: -$21

Yes position

Will the Detroit Pistons finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $200
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $46.4

No position

Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $200
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $46

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $181
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $19
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $16

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 7PM ET

Ends Sep 2, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $130
User PnL: -$4.7

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125.04
Potential profit: $125.04
User PnL: -$25

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$110

Yes position

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $1.38
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $108.63
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$3.57

No position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $101.69
Potential profit: $101.69
User PnL: -$24

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 450 or more times August 22–August 29?

Ends Aug 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$0.2

No position

Will a dozen eggs be between $3.50-3.75 in August?

Ends Aug 14, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$56

No position

Will "KPop Demon Hunters" have between 310-330m views on September 23?

Ends Sep 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$78.26

Yes position

Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $99.99
User PnL: -$53

No position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 25.8%
Current value: $25.5
Potential payout: $98.85
Potential profit: $73.35
Multiplier: 3.88x
User PnL: -$60.89

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the United States report a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average before January 1, 2022?

Ends Jan 8, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33K

No position

Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $105 or more on April 15, 2022?

Ends Apr 15, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 679379.39x
User PnL: $1.14K

No position

Will Terry McAuliffe win the general election for Governor of Virginia in 2021?

Ends Nov 2, 2021

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $948.8

Yes position

Will Gustavo Petro win the 2022 Colombian presidential election?

Ends May 29, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $786.68

Yes position

Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be below 25,000 by April 1?

Ends Apr 8, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $780

Yes position

Will October 2021 average global temperature be the highest October temperature on record?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 6233842.04x
User PnL: $725.65

Yes position

Will Labor win more seats than the Liberal-Nationals in the 2022 Australian Federal Election?

Ends May 21, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $683.62

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on September 30, 2021?

Ends Sep 30, 2021

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 53101343.73x
User PnL: $621.61

No position

Will the United States average less than 75k Covid cases by November 15?

Ends Nov 22, 2021

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 7160477.28x
User PnL: $612.72

Yes position

Will there be 850,000 or more total ETH burned before November 10th, 2021?

Ends Nov 10, 2021

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 6358584.02x
User PnL: $563.25

Yes position

NFL: Will the Steelers beat the Lions by more than 8.5 points in their November 14th matchup?

Ends Nov 14, 2021

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 5900675.32x
User PnL: $492.17

Republican position

Senate: Will a Democrat (Beasley) or Republican (Budd) win in North Carolina?

Ends Nov 8, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $467.26

Yes position

Will Ukraine become a European Union candidate country by July 31st?

Ends Jul 31, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $459.96

No position

Will Rodolfo Hernández win the 2022 Colombian presidential election?

Ends May 29, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $457.01

Yes position

Will a replacement for Jerome Powell as the Fed's chairman be announced by Noon ET, November 29, 2021?

Ends Nov 29, 2021

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 18791186.34x
User PnL: $444.49

Yes position

Will SpaceX's Starship successfully reach outer space by February 28, 2022?

Ends Feb 28, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 6267475.34x
User PnL: $426.42

No position

Will Basquiat’s “Versus Medici” sell for more than $50 million at Sotheby’s?

Ends May 12, 2021

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $425.65

Yes position

Will there be at least 850 unicorn companies worldwide according to CBInsights by October 1st?

Ends Oct 1, 2021

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 6651018.85x
User PnL: $420.14

No position

Will OpenTable’s “Seated diners from online, phone, and walk-in reservations” data point for the United States exceed its 2019 baseline by 7% or more by November 1, 2021?

Ends Nov 1, 2021

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 7579923.79x
User PnL: $412.39

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on November 30, 2021?

Ends Nov 30, 2021

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 10863773.94x
User PnL: $406.69

Yes position

Will the US have more than 200,000 new daily COVID-19 cases on or before October 1, 2021?

Ends Oct 5, 2021

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 6692579.53x
User PnL: $394.35

No position

Will there be more than 215 million fully vaccinated people in the USA on March 1, 2022?

Ends Mar 1, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 5391766.35x
User PnL: $391.09

Yes position

Will Olivia Jade and Val Chmerkovskiy Win Season 30 of Dancing with the Stars?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 4612627.13x
User PnL: $376.14

No position

Will weekly jobless claims exceed 310K for the week ending on September 11?

Ends Sep 16, 2021

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 35884587.11x
User PnL: $373.52

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Yes 25% 100 shares
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Yes 21% 600 shares
US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Yes 9.1% 100 shares
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by March 31, 2026?

Yes 4% 300 shares
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4?

No 28% 10 shares
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4?

Yes 52% 10 shares
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by March 31, 2026?

Yes 7% 300 shares
Will there be a perfect NCAA bracket?

No 98.4% 200 shares
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 0.6% 830 shares
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 1.6% 320 shares
US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Yes 19% 100 shares
Will the Detroit Pistons finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference?

Yes 76.8% 55 shares