Polymarket Trader

RecursiveDragon

@recursivedragon

0x1dc78302de1aa507954b76bb3a4df8b593d9302d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $15.62K
Realized PnL: $48.31K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 8
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.8%
Current value: $15.15K
Potential payout: $16.16K
Potential profit: $1.01K
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.07K

Yes position

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $95.29
Potential payout: $762.29
Potential profit: $667
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$93.91

Yes position

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $181.33
Potential payout: $659.39
Potential profit: $478.06
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: -$167.55

Yes position

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.1%
Current value: $15.92
Potential payout: $197.82
Potential profit: $181.9
Multiplier: 12.42x
User PnL: $8.01

No position

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $167.34
Potential payout: $181.99
Potential profit: $14.65
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$3.73

Yes position

Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.85
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$4.95

Yes position

Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $18
Potential profit: $17.89
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$10.69

No position

Stripe IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $15.65
Potential payout: $17.01
Potential profit: $1.36
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $5.14

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 million?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.01K

Yes position

Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.27K

No position

Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.97K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.86K

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.71K

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.3%
Multiplier: 16.00x
User PnL: $2.7K

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.68K

No position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 million?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.59K

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.58K

No position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.49K

No position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.25K

No position

Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.22K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.06K

No position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 million?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.61K

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.48K

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.43K

Yes position

Chirayu Rana sued?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33K

Yes position

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.16K

Yes position

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.15K

Yes position

Cluely CEO Roy Lee in jail in 2025

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.03K

Yes position

Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?

Ends Nov 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $959.99

No position

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $959.05

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $918

Yes position

Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 17, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $892.59

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?

Yes 99.8% 5,355 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?

Yes 99.9% 5,555 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?

Yes 99.7% 199.99 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?

Yes 99.6% 5,555 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

Yes 94% 3,973.62 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?

No 1.9% 683.15 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?

No 0.9% 621 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?

No 0.7% 0.94 shares
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?

Yes 0.6% 105.1 shares
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?

Yes 0.4% 4,067.02 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?

No 3.7% 482.38 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?

No 1.3% 249 shares