nodrogelo

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.5K
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $796.28
Potential payout: $1.85K
Potential profit: $1.06K
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: $146.28

Yes position

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?

Ends Dec 22, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.56K
Potential profit: $1.56K
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $344.62
Potential payout: $1.13K
Potential profit: $785.29
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$155.38

Passion UA position

Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FaZe (BO1)

Ends Nov 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $981.63
Potential profit: $981.63
User PnL: -$400

Jirí Procházka position

UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $947.69
Potential profit: $947.69
User PnL: -$492.8

No position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?

Ends Dec 11, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $833.33
Potential profit: $833.33
User PnL: -$100

No position

Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)

Ends Dec 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $666.46
Potential profit: $666.46
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $510.2
Potential profit: $510.2
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $338.11
Potential profit: $338.11
User PnL: -$15

Team Falcons position

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3)

Ends Dec 11, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $178.57
Potential profit: $178.57
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $153.85
Potential profit: $153.85
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $106.84
Potential profit: $106.84
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" while addressing the nation on December 17?

Ends Dec 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Trump say "Election" while addressing the nation on December 17?

Ends Dec 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.48
Potential profit: $43.48
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $458.9

No position

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $280

Yes position

Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $204.95

No position

Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $179.76

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $163.65

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.35

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $118.84

Xtreme Gaming position

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1)

Ends Nov 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.08

Team Falcons position

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO1)

Ends Nov 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.89

Avalanche position

Avalanche vs. Wild

Ends Nov 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $85.71

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.36

No position

US strike on Syria by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.83

No position

Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in December 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $28.94

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.44

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.4

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in December 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.86

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in December 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.74

Pakistan position

Pakistan Tri-Series: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Game 5)

Ends Dec 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.45

Yes position

Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

Ends Dec 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.98

No position

Lighter Airdrop on December 29?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.97

No position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.46

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?