Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.8%
- Current value
- $1.41K
- Potential payout
- $12K
- Potential profit
- $10.59K
- Multiplier
- 8.51x
- User PnL
- $402
Polymarket Trader
throat-goat
0x1e34fd6aa3b46e4f4d6b97a1491b726291adb86f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.12K
- Realized PnL
- $9.21K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.8%
- Current value
- $825
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $5.18K
- Multiplier
- 7.27x
- User PnL
- -$188.99
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.8%
- Current value
- $2.25K
- Potential payout
- $2.4K
- Potential profit
- $150
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $6
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Current value
- $579
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $21
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $54
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $246
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- -$99
Yes position
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$106
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.98K
No position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $615.12
No position
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- $569.61
No position
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $555.24
Yes position
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Multiplier
- 29.41x
- User PnL
- $539.39
No position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $470.79
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $400.4
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $369.75
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $347.75
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $244.64
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $168
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- $138.98
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.08
Yes position
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76
Yes position
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10%
- Multiplier
- 10.00x
- User PnL
- $68.13
No position
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $64
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.83
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
Ends Feb 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.28
Seahawks position
Seahawks vs. Patriots
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.63
Yes position
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52
Yes position
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48
Yes position
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- $47.52
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No 48% 336.55 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?Yes 8% 1,250 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?Yes 7% 357.14 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes 3.4% 19,999.96 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No 95% 1,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 87% 800 shares
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No 60.8% 1,600 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 82.1% 1,200 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 72% 1,400 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 72% 1,400 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?No 95% 200 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 17% 1,399.96 shares