Yes position
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.92K
- Potential profit
- $4.92K
- User PnL
- -$4.92
Polymarket Trader
tolledo
0x1e66abb6c966fa1ffbedec7af06190cbcf9441e7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $32.71
- Realized PnL
- $946.18
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 50
- Closed positions
- 50
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Trump announce Tom Cotton as the next Director of National Intelligence?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.57K
- Potential profit
- $2.57K
- User PnL
- -$2.57
Yes position
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1.24
- Potential payout
- $2.47K
- Potential profit
- $2.47K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.24
Yes position
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.46K
- Potential profit
- $2.46K
- User PnL
- -$2.46
Yes position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.45K
- Potential profit
- $2.45K
- User PnL
- -$2.45
N
No position
Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.42K
- Potential profit
- $2.42K
- User PnL
- -$2.42
Yes position
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 28?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.41K
- Potential profit
- $2.41K
- User PnL
- -$2.41
No position
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.38K
- Potential profit
- $2.38K
- User PnL
- -$2.38
No position
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.36K
- Potential profit
- $2.36K
- User PnL
- -$2.36
No position
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.32K
- Potential profit
- $2.32K
- User PnL
- -$2.32
Yes position
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.49K
- Potential profit
- $1.49K
- User PnL
- -$5.1
Yes position
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1.3
- Potential payout
- $1.3K
- Potential profit
- $1.3K
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.3K
- Potential profit
- $1.3K
- User PnL
- -$2.59
No position
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1480+?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.29K
- Potential profit
- $1.29K
- User PnL
- -$2.57
No position
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.27K
- Potential profit
- $1.27K
- User PnL
- -$2.54
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.25K
- User PnL
- -$2.49
Yes position
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.23K
- Potential profit
- $1.23K
- User PnL
- -$2.45
Yes position
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $6.6
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.19K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- $4.2
No position
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.2K
- User PnL
- -$2.4
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.17K
- Potential profit
- $1.17K
- User PnL
- -$2.35
Yes position
Will Broadcom be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $2.49
- Potential payout
- $997.35
- Potential profit
- $994.86
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- $1.5
No position
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $863.33
- Potential profit
- $863.33
- User PnL
- -$2.59
No position
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $850.01
- Potential profit
- $850.01
- User PnL
- -$2.55
No position
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $818.6
- Potential profit
- $818.6
- User PnL
- -$7.69
Yes position
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $2.74
- Potential payout
- $783.25
- Potential profit
- $780.51
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $731.02
- Potential profit
- $731.02
- User PnL
- -$9.17
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $635
- Potential profit
- $635
- User PnL
- -$2.54
No position
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $632.33
- Potential profit
- $632.33
- User PnL
- -$1.26
No position
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $620
- Potential profit
- $620
- User PnL
- -$2.48
Yes position
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $612.5
- Potential profit
- $612.5
- User PnL
- -$2.45
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $1.52
- Potential payout
- $606.11
- Potential profit
- $604.6
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.01
Yes position
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $605
- Potential profit
- $605
- User PnL
- -$2.42
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $587.5
- Potential profit
- $587.5
- User PnL
- -$2.35
No position
Will MrBeast hit 129 billion views by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $551.98
- Potential profit
- $551.98
- User PnL
- -$2.21
Yes position
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $2.47
- Potential payout
- $549.99
- Potential profit
- $547.52
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$2.47
No position
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $548
- Potential profit
- $548
- User PnL
- -$0.55
Yes position
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $4.3
- Potential payout
- $537.19
- Potential profit
- $532.89
- Multiplier
- 125.00x
- User PnL
- $0.21
Yes position
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $1.32
- Potential payout
- $529.05
- Potential profit
- $527.73
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.4
No position
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $527.35
- Potential profit
- $527.35
- User PnL
- -$5.03
No position
ECB rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $514
- Potential profit
- $514
- User PnL
- -$2.57
No position
Ethereum flipped in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $508
- Potential profit
- $508
- User PnL
- -$2.54
No position
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $502
- Potential profit
- $502
- User PnL
- -$2.51
Yes position
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $498.4
- Potential profit
- $497.65
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.25
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.25
- Potential payout
- $495.45
- Potential profit
- $495.2
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.73
No position
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $486.06
- Potential profit
- $486.06
- User PnL
- -$4.96
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $486
- Potential profit
- $486
- User PnL
- -$2.43
No position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $486
- Potential profit
- $486
- User PnL
- -$2.43
Yes position
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $2.36
- Potential payout
- $472.29
- Potential profit
- $469.93
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.04
Yes position
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $5.37
- Potential payout
- $466.79
- Potential profit
- $461.42
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- $0.02
N
No position
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $451.16
- Potential profit
- $451.16
- User PnL
- -$9.75
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $74.67
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $67.42
Yes position
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.03
No position
Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $30.42
Yes position
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $29.22
No position
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 31?
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $28.21
No position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $28.14
Yes position
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $26.25
No position
Will Trove launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $25.56
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $23.12
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22.77
Yes position
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of February 2 above $370?
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22.37
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.61
Yes position
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.12
No position
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.95
Yes position
Will Solana dip to $50 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.39
Yes position
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.33
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.86
Yes position
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.77
Yes position
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15.4
Yes position
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15.13
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Multiplier
- 30.30x
- User PnL
- $14.99
No position
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.94
No position
Will NVIDIA dip to $184 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.98
No position
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.74
Yes position
Will there be between 18 and 21 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.63
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 20?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.53
No position
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.48
Yes position
Will Novak Djokovic win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.15
No position
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.74
Yes position
Will the US strike Cuba next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.59
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.48
Yes position
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.38
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.37
Yes position
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.15
Yes position
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $12.09
Yes position
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.83
Yes position
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.77
Yes position
Will PARIVISION win PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.65
Yes position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.57
No position
Will Kim Keon Hee be sentenced to prison by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.41
No position
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.4
No position
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.26
Yes position
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.21
No position
Citrea FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.17
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.95
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.75
Yes position
Will the Rolex Index hit $13,150 (HIGH) by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.74
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.74
Yes position
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.74
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran leadership change by June 30?Yes 0.9% 325.15 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes 0.5% 273.33 shares
- NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Yes 0.8% 398.11 shares
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?Yes 0.5% 440.14 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?Yes 0.6% 388.69 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?Yes 0.3% 266.86 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?Yes 0.2% 432.15 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yes 0.5% 291.45 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?Yes 0.1% 296.26 shares
- Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 0.4% 255.68 shares
- Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Yes 0.6% 308.78 shares
- Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?Yes 0.5% 257 shares