No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.72
Polymarket Trader
cale313arianna
0x1f1c95580585b81794f3435a5efe48b697f9549d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $0
- Realized PnL
- $8.98
- Win rate
- 83.3%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Latest Resolved Positions
No open position details returned
This trader has an open-position count, but open position cards are not available yet. Showing their latest closed positions instead.
Yes position
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.67
No position
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.86
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.78
Yes position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- $0.69
Yes position
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.57
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.72
Yes position
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.67
No position
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.86
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.78
Yes position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- $0.69
Yes position
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.57
No position
Netanyahu out by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.19
Yes position
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup?
Ends Jul 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 86.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Ends Dec 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.07
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1%
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 98%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 94.3% 100 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 94.4% 100 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No 77.5% 116 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by May 8?No 98.2% 100 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No 87.1% 84 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No 81% 113 shares
- Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?No 97.1% 94 shares
- Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?No 97.1% 94 shares
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No 94.3% 97 shares
- Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 94.7% 95 shares
- Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 94.7% 95 shares
- Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 92.1% 99 shares