No position
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.51K
- Potential profit
- $2.51K
- User PnL
- -$200
Polymarket Trader
kirilxd
0x1f555795246bd7a3e097050000c6cc9d4342fe67
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.57K
- Realized PnL
- $3.03K
- Win rate
- 76.5%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 17
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $1.09K
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $114
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $78
Yes position
Will the SBC initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $956.06
- Potential profit
- $956.06
- User PnL
- -$550.21
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $833.33
- Potential profit
- $833.33
- User PnL
- -$150
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $483.33
- Potential payout
- $666.67
- Potential profit
- $183.33
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $183.33
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $598.04
- Potential profit
- $598.04
- User PnL
- -$305
No position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$24
No position
Kristi Noem out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$375
Yes position
Andrii Yermak arrested by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $412
- Potential profit
- $412
- User PnL
- -$57.68
Yes position
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $382.7
- Potential profit
- $382.7
- User PnL
- -$100
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $779.86
No position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $525.43
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $336.49
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $336
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $319.56
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $299.09
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $196.8
No position
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $129.99
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $129.26
No position
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $112.66
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.32
No position
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $36.74
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.94
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$4.7
Yes position
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025?
Ends May 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$187.7
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 45% 666.67 shares
- Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?Yes 26.1% 382.7 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No 95% 652.17 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 47% 425.53 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No 46% 652.17 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?No 3.4% 359.71 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 73% 410.96 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?No 55.6% 359.72 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Yes 18% 833.33 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 91% 472.81 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 63% 160.32 shares
- Will the SBC initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?Yes 9.5% 1,054.15 shares