Yes position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $83.02
- Potential payout
- $9.22K
- Potential profit
- $9.14K
- Multiplier
- 111.11x
- User PnL
- $27.67
Polymarket Trader
ChainReaction-392
0x1f5a521a3264025f8e9660a1b11798300f3a1d35
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $719.5
- Realized PnL
- $24.65K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.53K
- Potential profit
- $3.53K
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.7%
- Current value
- $70.64
- Potential payout
- $1.94K
- Potential profit
- $1.86K
- Multiplier
- 27.40x
- User PnL
- -$8.86
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $13.46
- Potential payout
- $390.12
- Potential profit
- $376.66
- Multiplier
- 28.99x
- User PnL
- -$84.07
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $289.65
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $10.35
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $23.36
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $7.57
- Potential payout
- $280.33
- Potential profit
- $272.76
- Multiplier
- 37.04x
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Ends Oct 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $137.51
- Potential payout
- $209.93
- Potential profit
- $72.43
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $137.51
No position
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.9%
- Current value
- $94.4
- Potential payout
- $149.99
- Potential profit
- $55.59
- Multiplier
- 1.59x
- User PnL
- $94.4
No position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $23.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $26.75
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- -$1.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.81K
Yes position
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.41K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3K
Yes position
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $830.41
Yes position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $791.06
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $702.65
Yes position
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $677.03
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $573
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $569.52
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $504.85
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $475.49
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $434.33
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $397.8
Yes position
Israel military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $394.13
Yes position
Yoon arrested by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $291.44
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $237.08
Yes position
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $223.33
Yes position
Israel military response against Iran in October?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $180.68
No position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $165.97
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $157
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150
Yes position
US strikes Yemen by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $145.79
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $119.27
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.48
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?Yes 3% 110 shares
- Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?No 97.9% 650 shares
- Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No 67% 60 shares
- Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No 67% 100 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 81.9% 1,679.01 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 91.4% 799.98 shares
- Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Yes 6.6% 306.51 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 97.1% 310 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No 85% 323.27 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 99.7% 1,400 shares
- Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes 2.8% 3,014.41 shares
- Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes 2% 423.41 shares