Polymarket Trader

Dutchland

0x2038860bb8aa7037e7b2d323c15a6411ed0b6161

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.3K
Realized PnL: $8.57K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 8.6%
Current value: $270.69
Potential payout: $3.17K
Potential profit: $2.9K
Multiplier: 11.70x
User PnL: $141.05

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

Ends Sep 6, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $1.01K
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $24.39
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $380.72

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $851.06
Potential profit: $851.06
User PnL: -$323.4

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $563.39
Potential payout: $682.89
Potential profit: $119.51
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $368.05

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $470.6
Potential payout: $503.32
Potential profit: $32.72
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $37.75

Yes position

Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $60.51
Potential payout: $345.78
Potential profit: $285.27
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $41.33

No position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 81.7%
Current value: $279.32
Potential payout: $342.1
Potential profit: $62.78
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $20.7

No position

New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $286.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $13.5
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $13.5

Yes position

Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $79.73
Potential payout: $289.94
Potential profit: $210.21
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $67.25

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 20.7%
Current value: $53.27
Potential payout: $257.33
Potential profit: $204.06
Multiplier: 4.83x
User PnL: $41.99

Yes position

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $61.73
Potential payout: $251.97
Potential profit: $190.24
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $51.23

Yes position

Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 23.6%
Current value: $54.7
Potential payout: $232.28
Potential profit: $177.58
Multiplier: 4.25x
User PnL: $44.67

No position

NATO dissolves before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $98.87
Potential payout: $100.02
Potential profit: $1.15
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $6.84

Yes position

Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $2.33
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $47.68
Multiplier: 21.51x
User PnL: $0.24

Yes position

Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

Ends Sep 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $4.03
Potential profit: $4.02
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.11

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.02K

Yes position

Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.09K

Yes position

German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $906.58

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $589.82

No position

German government files appeal to ban AfD in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $494.14

Yes position

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $480.38

Yes position

Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $451.18

Yes position

Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $422.72

Yes position

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $364.63

Yes position

Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $194.19

Yes position

Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $168.74

No position

Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday?

Ends Jun 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $166.79

No position

Trump renames Persian Gulf to "Arabian Gulf" in May?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156.7

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.5

Yes position

Germany confidence vote in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.11

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123

No position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.33

No position

Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Sunday?

Ends Mar 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.95

Yes position

Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-01 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?

Ends Apr 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.78

No position

BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.09

No position

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?

Ends Mar 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.23

No position

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.93

No position

Will Anish Giri win on 2026-04-09 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.24

Yes position

Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $71.8

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Yes 86% 10.99 shares
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Yes 13% 67 shares
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

No 75.6% 342.1 shares
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Yes 6.1% 170.33 shares
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Yes 41% 20 shares
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Yes 1% 4.31 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?

Yes 51% 251.02 shares
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Yes 10.2% 7 shares
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Yes 10.2% 7 shares
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Yes 10.2% 7 shares
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Yes 10.2% 7 shares
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Yes 10.2% 7 shares