No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $177.53
- Potential payout
- $235.14
- Potential profit
- $57.61
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $7.53
Polymarket Trader
0x203a8eFA14Fe4b4FeBD63a7b331Ea489AC32F9A3-1733567836151
0x203a8efa14fe4b4febd63a7b331ea489ac32f9a3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $492.99
- Realized PnL
- $977.88
- Win rate
- 83.3%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $216.25
- Potential payout
- $231.28
- Potential profit
- $15.03
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $16.25
Yes position
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Ends Aug 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $99.21
- Potential payout
- $158.73
- Potential profit
- $59.52
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$0.79
Yes position
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $33.33
- User PnL
- -$13
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $184.19
No position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.05
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.89
Yes position
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.55
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.93
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $62.84
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $56.65
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.93
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.33
No position
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.85
No position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.18
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.21
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.38
Yes position
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.61
Yes position
Netanyahu out by 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.95
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.42
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- User PnL
- $12.47
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $9.68
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.27
No position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.05
No position
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.23
No position
Will Hamas allow IDF to remain in Gaza?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$4.88
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5.38
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.06
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 74% 135.14 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 88% 113.64 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?No 98.8% 215.05 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 70% 100 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Yes 63% 158.73 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 85% 117.65 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?No 93% 215.05 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 99% 352.21 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 0.5% 111.11 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 42% 163.94 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 54% 111.11 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 85% 164.71 shares