Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 44%
- Current value
- $55.48
- Potential payout
- $126.08
- Potential profit
- $70.6
- Multiplier
- 2.27x
- User PnL
- -$4.52
Polymarket Trader
yuteman
0x207c6848d0822cd9f189bc5d2495633a8557f5b0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $163.8
- Realized PnL
- $242.95
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $39.89
- Potential payout
- $68.18
- Potential profit
- $28.3
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $9.89
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $47.36
- Potential payout
- $51.76
- Potential profit
- $4.4
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $3.36
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.2%
- Current value
- $21.03
- Potential payout
- $22.57
- Potential profit
- $1.55
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.03
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $14.25
- Potential profit
- $14.2
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$4.95
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.9
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.86
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.63
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $18.22
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.67
Yes position
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.11
Yes position
Will Trump say 'tariff' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the Union?
Ends Mar 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.52
No position
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.27
No position
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.44
No position
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.7
No position
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.65
Yes position
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.05
No position
Will Biden pardon Hillary?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.94
No position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 88.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $3.8
No position
Will US leave NATO by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.68
No position
Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.65
No position
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.49
No position
Will the U.S. acquire Canadian territory in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.4
Yes position
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.85
No position
Trump declassifies JFK files in first week?
Ends Jan 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.76
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.69
No position
Will Trump say 'term limit' during the 2025 State of the Union?
Ends Mar 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.26
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.18
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.23
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?No 35.1% 14.25 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?Yes 88.6% 22.57 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 99.2% 135.24 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes 43% 23.26 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 28% 25.31 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 26% 18.5 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 85.8% 135.24 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?No 44% 68.18 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes 48.6% 102.82 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 79% 25.32 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 54% 18.5 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes 99.1% 228.31 shares