xvsp

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $96.73K
Potential profit: $96.73K
User PnL: -$1.49K

Yes position

Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $93.17
Potential payout: $37.27K
Potential profit: $37.17K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$115.75

Yes position

Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $44.05
Potential payout: $29.37K
Potential profit: $29.32K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$118.15

Yes position

Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $102.46
Potential payout: $29.27K
Potential profit: $29.17K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$343.55

Yes position

Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.6K
Potential profit: $20.6K
User PnL: -$502.25

Yes position

Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $38.88
Potential payout: $15.55K
Potential profit: $15.51K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$14.98

Yes position

Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $18.05
Potential payout: $7.22K
Potential profit: $7.2K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$32.49

Yes position

Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $16.99
Potential payout: $6.8K
Potential profit: $6.78K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$25.87

Yes position

Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $17.72
Potential payout: $5.06K
Potential profit: $5.04K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$79.63

Yes position

Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $10.72
Potential payout: $4.29K
Potential profit: $4.28K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$32.03

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $16.76
Potential payout: $3.72K
Potential profit: $3.71K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$49.63

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $42.99
Potential payout: $3.44K
Potential profit: $3.4K
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: $16.28

Yes position

Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.11K
Potential profit: $3.11K
User PnL: -$196.82

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $15.13
Potential payout: $2.16K
Potential profit: $2.15K
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$5.35

Yes position

Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $582.51
Potential profit: $582.51
User PnL: -$25.44

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $1.77
Potential payout: $393.98
Potential profit: $392.21
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $600 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $124.19
Potential profit: $124.19
User PnL: -$21.11

Yes position

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $590 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $119.47
Potential profit: $119.47
User PnL: -$5.97

Yes position

Will Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) hit (LOW) $520 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11
Potential profit: $11
User PnL: -$1.21

Yes position

Will Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) hit (LOW) $540 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$3.6

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) hit (LOW) $530 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $0.77
Potential payout: $2.1
Potential profit: $1.34
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: $0.37

No position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $1
User PnL: -$0.06

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $213.04

No position

Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.72

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 February 2-8?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.49

No position

Will Microsoft reach $495 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.32

Yes position

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.79

No position

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $465 end of January?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.81

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: $27.41

No position

Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.1

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.56

No position

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 end of January?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.8

Yes position

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 3% and 4%?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $19.75

No position

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of January?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.06

Yes position

Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 3.5%
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: $17.6

Yes position

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of February?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.51

Yes position

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be at least 10%?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $16.95

Yes position

Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $15.33

Yes position

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 2% and 3%?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $15.04

$80k position

Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.04

Yes position

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $620 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.7

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.53

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.96

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.5

Yes position

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 8% and 10%?