Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.9%
- Current value
- $104.3
- Potential payout
- $700
- Potential profit
- $595.7
- Multiplier
- 6.71x
- User PnL
- $29.5
Polymarket Trader
Nowayfolding
0x20b382be32a82d308fb9238f3c2a01756385d24c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.87K
- Realized PnL
- $611.4
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Current value
- $19.5
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $580.5
- Multiplier
- 30.77x
- User PnL
- -$39.5
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $20.7
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $579.3
- Multiplier
- 28.99x
- User PnL
- -$3.3
N
No position
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $301.8
- Potential payout
- $507.23
- Potential profit
- $205.43
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- -$51.23
N
No position
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $280.92
- Potential payout
- $472.14
- Potential profit
- $191.22
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- -$93.5
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $419.3
- Potential profit
- $419.3
- User PnL
- -$326.15
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $390.77
- Potential payout
- $390.96
- Potential profit
- $0.2
- User PnL
- $83.26
Yes position
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 69%
- Current value
- $239.31
- Potential payout
- $346.87
- Potential profit
- $107.56
- Multiplier
- 1.45x
- User PnL
- $2.75
Yes position
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $1.24
- Potential payout
- $311
- Potential profit
- $309.76
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$7.24
Yes position
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $299.95
- Potential profit
- $299.95
- User PnL
- -$8.3
No position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Current value
- $4.75
- Potential payout
- $249.99
- Potential profit
- $245.24
- Multiplier
- 52.63x
- User PnL
- -$13.25
Yes position
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.12
- Potential payout
- $240
- Potential profit
- $239.88
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$23.52
N
No position
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $149.39
- Potential payout
- $228.07
- Potential profit
- $78.68
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- -$37.66
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $201.83
- Potential profit
- $201.83
- User PnL
- -$58.39
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $25.62
- Potential payout
- $183
- Potential profit
- $157.38
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$1.46
Yes position
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $74.9
- Potential payout
- $140
- Potential profit
- $65.1
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- $47.9
N
No position
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $81.22
- Potential payout
- $124
- Potential profit
- $42.78
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $3.91
Yes position
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $84.52
- Potential payout
- $114.99
- Potential profit
- $30.47
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $1.07
Yes position
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $8.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $91.5
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- $2.5
No position
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.95
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$32.95
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $5.35
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $94.65
- Multiplier
- 18.69x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $90
- User PnL
- -$57.2
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $44
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $6
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $14
Yes position
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $33.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $16.25
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $1.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $254.09
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $122.09
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $73.4
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.94
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $43.75
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.05
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 19%
- Multiplier
- 5.26x
- User PnL
- $10
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $9
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.35
Yes position
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.3
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.4
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 81%
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $3.9
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.54
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.75
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3
No position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1.28
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.72
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.31
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.28
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.26
Yes position
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?
Ends Aug 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30?Yes 70% 68.39 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 50% 20 shares
- Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No 74% 71.23 shares
- Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No 74% 19 shares
- Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No 75% 20 shares
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No 71% 17.07 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 50% 20 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 51% 20 shares
- Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30?Yes 68% 110.26 shares
- Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30?Yes 68% 99.99 shares
- Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30?Yes 67% 18.23 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 69% 50 shares