Yes position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.2K
- Potential profit
- $10.2K
- User PnL
- -$2.31K
Polymarket Trader
George.Smiley
0x2110ba2a1e18840109482ff4ddc547baeff45850
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $12.26K
- Realized PnL
- $98.77K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 50
- Closed positions
- 50
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.8K
- Potential profit
- $4.8K
- User PnL
- -$2.93K
Yes position
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.44K
- Potential profit
- $3.44K
- User PnL
- -$3.13K
Yes position
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.4%
- Current value
- $446.4
- Potential payout
- $3.1K
- Potential profit
- $2.65K
- Multiplier
- 6.94x
- User PnL
- -$101.19
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.6%
- Current value
- $466.5
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $2.53K
- Multiplier
- 6.43x
- User PnL
- -$31.5
Yes position
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $58.75
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.44K
- Multiplier
- 42.55x
- User PnL
- -$1.19K
No position
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$520
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 24.8%
- Current value
- $396.8
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $1.2K
- Multiplier
- 4.03x
- User PnL
- -$97.2
Yes position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.6%
- Current value
- $54.17
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.45K
- Multiplier
- 27.78x
- User PnL
- -$40.15
Yes position
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.33K
- Potential profit
- $1.33K
- User PnL
- -$175.84
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 41%
- Current value
- $537.06
- Potential payout
- $1.31K
- Potential profit
- $772.85
- Multiplier
- 2.44x
- User PnL
- $39.3
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.25K
- User PnL
- -$166.25
Yes position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 12?
Ends Dec 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.25K
- User PnL
- -$121.15
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.7%
- Current value
- $794
- Potential payout
- $1.14K
- Potential profit
- $345.99
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- $529.89
No position
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Feb 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $1.1K
- User PnL
- -$59.76
No position
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $1.08K
- Potential payout
- $1.08K
- Potential profit
- $1.63
- User PnL
- $9.64
Yes position
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Current value
- $19
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $981
- Multiplier
- 52.63x
- User PnL
- -$24
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$70
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$24.5
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $999.99
- User PnL
- -$589.99
No position
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Current value
- $967.95
- Potential payout
- $999.95
- Potential profit
- $32
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $317.98
N
No position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78%
- Current value
- $764.8
- Potential payout
- $980.51
- Potential profit
- $215.71
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $537.62
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $950
- Potential profit
- $950
- User PnL
- -$533.5
Yes position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 18, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $12.14
- Potential payout
- $899.18
- Potential profit
- $887.05
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$62.7
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $482.85
- Potential payout
- $869.99
- Potential profit
- $387.15
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- -$13.05
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.1%
- Current value
- $690.38
- Potential payout
- $750
- Potential profit
- $59.63
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $195.37
Yes position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $93.65
- Potential payout
- $693.72
- Potential profit
- $600.07
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$7.2
Yes position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 11, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $662.38
- Potential profit
- $662.38
- User PnL
- -$47.99
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $600
- User PnL
- -$48
No position
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $593.4
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $6.6
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $149.4
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $510
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $90
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $72
Yes position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 24, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $6.44
- Potential payout
- $560
- Potential profit
- $553.56
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$24.19
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $499.5
- Potential payout
- $540
- Potential profit
- $40.5
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $2.7
Yes position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 13, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $539
- Potential profit
- $539
- User PnL
- -$11.86
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $508.22
- Potential payout
- $510
- Potential profit
- $1.79
- User PnL
- $7.9
Yes position
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $12.92
- Potential payout
- $508.49
- Potential profit
- $495.57
- Multiplier
- 39.37x
- User PnL
- -$57.76
No position
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $499.23
- Potential payout
- $500.48
- Potential profit
- $1.25
- User PnL
- $11.33
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 7.3%
- Current value
- $36.25
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $463.75
- Multiplier
- 13.79x
- User PnL
- -$8.75
Yes position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$371.95
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $460
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $40
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $235
No position
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $495.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $4.5
- User PnL
- $34.5
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $92.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $407.5
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- $32.5
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$150
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $491.74
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $8.25
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $185.75
No position
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of January?
Ends Jan 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $499.99
- User PnL
- -$230
Yes position
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $499.99
- User PnL
- -$334.99
No position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $488.24
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $11.75
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $23.25
Yes position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $277.19
- Potential payout
- $450.71
- Potential profit
- $173.52
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $245.58
Yes position
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $433
- Potential profit
- $433
- User PnL
- -$243.76
No position
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $416.77
- Potential payout
- $419.92
- Potential profit
- $3.15
- User PnL
- $5.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.5K
No position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.65K
No position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.99K
No position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.34K
Yes position
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.36K
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.86K
Yes position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.4K
Yes position
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.57K
No position
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.41K
No position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.82K
No position
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.69K
No position
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.56K
No position
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.32K
Yes position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25K
No position
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $854.97
No position
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $817.92
No position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by November 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $752.09
Yes position
No change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $711.65
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $678.43
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $656.62
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $570
Yes position
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $559.01
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $501.08
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $432
No position
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $404.41
Yes position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $397.42
Yes position
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $385.65
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $370.2
No position
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $364.07
Yes position
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $359.13
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $340
Yes position
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $324.98
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $321.49
No position
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $313.74
No position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $300
Yes position
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $298.04
Yes position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $295.02
No position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $287.21
Yes position
GPT ads by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $263.99
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $259.99
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $256
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $255.63
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $250
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $250
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $225
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $200
Yes position
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $198.15
No position
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $198.01
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $195.79
Yes position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?
Ends Dec 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $186.45
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026?Yes 16% 440.25 shares
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026?Yes 7.7% 1,215.44 shares
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026?Yes 13% 251.71 shares
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 9, 2026?Yes 8% 1,156.47 shares
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026?Yes 5.7% 891.11 shares
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 24, 2026?Yes 5.5% 560 shares
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 7, 2026?No 99.5% 100 shares
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 5, 2026?No 99.6% 400 shares
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 18, 2026?Yes 8.9% 510.17 shares
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 11, 2026?Yes 8% 162.42 shares
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 9, 2026?Yes 10% 282.55 shares
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026?Yes 6.9% 884.43 shares