Lustyleopard

Implied probability: 20.8%
Current value: $7.58
Potential payout: $36.54
Potential profit: $28.96
Multiplier: 4.82x
User PnL: $2.97

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 89°F or below on July 16?

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $19.71
Potential payout: $31.54
Potential profit: $11.83
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $8.29

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $4.21
Potential payout: $21.6
Potential profit: $17.39
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$2.01

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 16?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $18.21
Potential profit: $18.2
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$6.55

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 58%
Current value: $9.95
Potential payout: $17.17
Potential profit: $7.22
Multiplier: 1.73x
User PnL: $5.95

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $8.26
Potential payout: $17.04
Potential profit: $8.78
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: $0.09

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $3.35
Potential payout: $15.56
Potential profit: $12.21
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in July?

Implied probability: 10.3%
Current value: $1.55
Potential payout: $15.09
Potential profit: $13.54
Multiplier: 9.76x
User PnL: $0.55

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or below on July 16?

Implied probability: 43.4%
Current value: $6.53
Potential payout: $15.05
Potential profit: $8.52
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $2.17

Yes position

Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $2.43
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $11.86
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$0.14

Yes position

Will Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in July?

Implied probability: 17.4%
Current value: $2.15
Potential payout: $12.35
Potential profit: $10.2
Multiplier: 5.73x
User PnL: $0.76

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $3.25
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $6.75
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on July 16?

Implied probability: 51%
Current value: $5.1
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $4.9
Multiplier: 1.96x
User PnL: -$2.6

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 13-19?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 95.1%
Current value: $8.11
Potential payout: $8.53
Potential profit: $0.42
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: -$0.04

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - July 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET

Implied probability: 60%
Current value: $4.76
Potential payout: $7.93
Potential profit: $3.17
Multiplier: 1.67x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $2.04
Potential payout: $7.7
Potential profit: $5.66
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $3.27
Potential payout: $7.7
Potential profit: $4.43
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$0.89

Dricus Du Plessis position

UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card)

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $5.04
Potential payout: $7.25
Potential profit: $2.21
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 16?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $6.73
Potential payout: $6.73
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $2.49

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 16?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.57
Potential profit: $6.57
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.05

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.57
Potential profit: $6.57
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.05

No position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 16?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $5.27
Potential payout: $5.27
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 16?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $5.25
Potential payout: $5.25
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.05

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.57

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $21.72

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.28

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.99

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.32

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.95

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.25

Up position

Solana Up or Down - April 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.98

Yes position

Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.75

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.15

Yes position

Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.81

Yes position

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.57

Yes position

Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Argentina?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13

Switzerland position

Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.73

Justin Gaethje position

UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12

Under position

France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.37

Yes position

Mexico leading at halftime?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.64

Yes position

Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.62

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.09

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.62

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $9

France position

Spread: France (-1.5)

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.52

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET