aelhara

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $25
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.98K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.75K
Potential profit: $8.75K
User PnL: -$232.97

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.5K
Potential profit: $6.5K
User PnL: -$6.99

Yes position

Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.92K
Potential profit: $4.92K
User PnL: -$258.45

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $107.33
Potential payout: $4.77K
Potential profit: $4.66K
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$4.26

Yes position

Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $7.12
Potential payout: $2.03K
Potential profit: $2.03K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: $1.02

No position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.96K
Potential profit: $1.96K
User PnL: -$107.33

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.83K
Potential profit: $1.83K
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $20.29
Potential payout: $1.76K
Potential profit: $1.74K
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$9.7

Yes position

Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $4.17
Potential payout: $1.67K
Potential profit: $1.66K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $13.32
Potential payout: $807.19
Potential profit: $793.88
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $5.32

Yes position

Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.31
Potential payout: $617.31
Potential profit: $617
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.69

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $31.1
Potential payout: $467.73
Potential profit: $436.63
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$15.78

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $238.1
Potential profit: $237.26
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$4.17

Yes position

Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.09
Potential payout: $172.75
Potential profit: $172.66
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.91

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 14.1%
Current value: $20.97
Potential payout: $149.26
Potential profit: $128.29
Multiplier: 7.12x
User PnL: $0.97

Yes position

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $9.29
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $133.57
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.71

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.65K

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Multiplier: 5.73x
User PnL: $83.51

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.71

Yes position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 12.5%
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $10

Yes position

Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.33

Yes position

Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $6.98

Yes position

Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.5

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 11.8%
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: $6.13

Yes position

Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.6

No position

Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.77

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 83.3%
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $1.9

No position

Iran leadership change by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.49

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.1

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04

No position

Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.98

No position

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.16

No position

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 84%
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Obama divorce before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?