No position
Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $522
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $78
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- -$8
Polymarket Trader
keepwatch-politic
0x2251f0b651a57f86194dc687e063b1f956b825a0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.75K
- Realized PnL
- $347.82
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 73%
- Current value
- $397.35
- Potential payout
- $544.31
- Potential profit
- $146.96
- Multiplier
- 1.37x
- User PnL
- -$17.59
No position
Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 90%
- Current value
- $278.37
- Potential payout
- $309.3
- Potential profit
- $30.93
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- -$2.61
No position
Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2027- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Current value
- $289.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $10.5
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$5.4
Yes position
Will Clémence Guetté advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 2.2%
- Current value
- $4.4
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $195.6
- Multiplier
- 45.45x
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will Olivier Faure announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2027- Implied probability
- 62.9%
- Current value
- $125.88
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $74.12
- Multiplier
- 1.59x
- User PnL
- -$56.12
No position
Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2027- Implied probability
- 49%
- Current value
- $98
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $102
- Multiplier
- 2.04x
- User PnL
- -$48
No position
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $104.12
- Potential profit
- $104.12
- User PnL
- -$63.51
Yes position
Will Élisabeth Borne advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $2.23
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $47.78
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- -$0.77
Yes position
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
Ends Jun 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 6.7%
- Current value
- $3.32
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $46.67
- Multiplier
- 15.04x
- User PnL
- -$1.18
Yes position
Will Jean Castex advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $1.03
- Potential payout
- $32.3
- Potential profit
- $31.27
- Multiplier
- 31.25x
- User PnL
- $0.06
Yes position
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $21.58
- Potential payout
- $24.52
- Potential profit
- $2.94
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Will Olivier Faure be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Current value
- $10.46
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $0.65
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $264
Blues position
Penguins vs. Blues
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40
Yes position
Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 79%
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $6.82
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.92
No position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.52
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.66
No position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $3.6
No position
Will David Roth be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Idaho?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.31
No position
Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $2.62
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $2
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.32
Yes position
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1
No position
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 86%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.87
No position
Will Michel Barnier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.83
No position
Will Manuel Valls be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.67
Yes position
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.6
Yes position
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.44
No position
Will Marine Le Pen announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.37
Yes position
Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- $0.31
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.27
No position
Will Sébastien Lecornu announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2027- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0.26
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.24
No position
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
Ends Oct 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $0.2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 93% 30 shares
- Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 92.1% 50 shares
- Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Yes 79% 11 shares
- Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 82.6% 536.14 shares
- Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 96.3% 200 shares
- Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 95% 5 shares
- Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 92.6% 86.85 shares
- Will Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 92.9% 30.74 shares
- Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 92.9% 249.1 shares
- Will Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 91% 17.92 shares
- Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 77.6% 205.97 shares
- Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 84% 2.75 shares