Polymarket Trader

midnightoctopus

@murkiwaters

0x226ba49a8f81306c48d960f2d5e6cff567a27343

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $853.49
Realized PnL: $866.04
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 6
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $465
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $535
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2027

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $109.5
Potential payout: $300.01
Potential profit: $190.51
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$9.5

Anthropic position

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $76.61
Potential payout: $102.84
Potential profit: $26.22
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: -$7.23

Yes position

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $83.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $16.5
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $97.2
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $2.8
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $18.2

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $21.68
Potential payout: $22.07
Potential profit: $0.4
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $2.65

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-09?

Ends Dec 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $128.29

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.56

Yes position

Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59

Yes position

Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.01

Yes position

Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-14?

Ends Dec 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.04

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.8

Yes position

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.84

No position

Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $35.18

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34

No position

Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $30.53

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28

Yes position

Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02?

Ends Nov 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.63

Yes position

Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-20?

Ends Dec 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.61

Yes position

Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.96

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.99

Yes position

Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05?

Ends Nov 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.43

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.12

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.74

No position

Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.36

Yes position

Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.58

Yes position

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21?

Ends Feb 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.6

Yes position

Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.78

Yes position

Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2027

Implied probability: 23%
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: $13

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?

Yes 83% 100 shares
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?

Yes 97.2% 100 shares
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?

Yes 85% 100 shares
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?

Yes 24% 200 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?

Yes 68% 30 shares
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?

Yes 24% 100 shares
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?

Yes 68% 35 shares
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?

No 1% 50 shares
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?

No 43% 50 shares
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Anthropic 75% 39.72 shares
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?

Yes 24% 100 shares
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?

Yes 24% 100 shares