Polymarket Trader

EVP-HalfKelly

0x2277c18fb73d4cfbd61384be80ef9339a9496604

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $6.02K
Realized PnL: $1.74K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 88.3%
Current value: $1.77K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $235
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $82.25
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $1.04K
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: -$2.8

No position

Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $649.09
Potential payout: $826.86
Potential profit: $177.77
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$78.55

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 71.5%
Current value: $429
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $171
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: -$51

No position

Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $63
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $537
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$63

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $165
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $435
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: -$39

No position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 81.8%
Current value: $490.5
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $109.5
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: -$8.1

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $264.75
Potential payout: $581.87
Potential profit: $317.12
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $37.82

No position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 62%
Current value: $336.73
Potential payout: $543.55
Potential profit: $206.82
Multiplier: 1.61x
User PnL: -$4.08

No position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $307.83
Potential payout: $424.59
Potential profit: $116.76
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: -$31.84

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $401.98
Potential payout: $404
Potential profit: $2.02
User PnL: $2.02

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $137.59
Potential payout: $387.59
Potential profit: $250
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$5.81

No position

Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $181.54
Potential payout: $310.32
Potential profit: $128.78
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: -$10.86

No position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18.7%
Current value: $55.39
Potential payout: $297
Potential profit: $241.61
Multiplier: 5.36x
User PnL: -$4.01

No position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $183.01
Potential payout: $248.99
Potential profit: $65.98
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$18.67

No position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 73.9%
Current value: $177.24
Potential payout: $240
Potential profit: $62.76
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: -$12.36

Yes position

Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $15.79
Potential payout: $210.57
Potential profit: $194.78
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $15.92
Potential payout: $198.97
Potential profit: $183.05
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$167.13

Yes position

Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $18.08
Potential payout: $180.77
Potential profit: $162.69
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$142.81

No position

Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 27?

Ends Jul 28, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $2.57
Potential payout: $177.54
Potential profit: $174.97
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$6.3

Yes position

Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $9.28
Potential payout: $168.76
Potential profit: $159.48
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$7.59

No position

Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 79.1%
Current value: $129.22
Potential payout: $163.36
Potential profit: $34.14
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: -$4.74

Yes position

Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $9.22
Potential payout: $153.64
Potential profit: $144.42
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$7.68

No position

Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Ends Oct 5, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $128.21
Potential payout: $153.54
Potential profit: $25.33
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$6.91

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $173.86

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $137.52

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.53

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.05

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.84

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.63

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.55

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.45

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.68

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.58

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.14

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.86

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.32

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.91

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.82

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.74

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.94

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.34

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.6

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.26

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.62

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.6

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET

Up 99% 242 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET

Up 99% 909 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET

Down 99% 363 shares
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET

Down 99% 121 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET

Down 99% 132 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

Up 99% 363 shares
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET

Up 99.9% 129.46 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET

Up 99% 456 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET

Up 99% 404 shares
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET

Up 99% 202 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET

Down 99% 545 shares
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

Up 99% 121 shares