No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $1.5K
- Potential payout
- $3.3K
- Potential profit
- $1.8K
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$364.69
Polymarket Trader
0x2282A5Df686F9Dd2326BbA576226850D439273E8-1773345042185
0x2282a5df686f9dd2326bba576226850d439273e8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.27K
- Realized PnL
- $1.67K
- Win rate
- 83.3%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $2.01K
- Potential payout
- $2.59K
- Potential profit
- $583.32
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $100.22
Yes position
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
Ends Oct 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $1.14K
- Potential payout
- $1.91K
- Potential profit
- $773.38
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $48.76
No position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $737.24
- Potential payout
- $1.69K
- Potential profit
- $957.56
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$304.83
No position
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 64%
- Current value
- $512
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $288
- Multiplier
- 1.56x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $162.1
- Potential payout
- $356.27
- Potential profit
- $194.17
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$37.41
Yes position
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.7%
- Current value
- $213.41
- Potential payout
- $240.6
- Potential profit
- $27.19
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $12.99
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- $583.26
Yes position
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $425.08
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $234.99
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.31
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.45
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.39
Yes position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $67.65
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $47.26
Yes position
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.2
No position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.39
Yes position
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $28.54
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 65%
- Multiplier
- 1.54x
- User PnL
- $27.48
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- $17.78
No position
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- $15.36
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.39
No position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Multiplier
- 66.67x
- User PnL
- $11.49
Yes position
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 28%
- Multiplier
- 3.57x
- User PnL
- $8.1
Yes position
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.14
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.12
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.49
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.85
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5.66
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$24.18
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$124.2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?Yes 56% 356.27 shares
- Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Yes 59% 452.13 shares
- Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Yes 57% 3.24 shares
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?No 67% 456.01 shares
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?No 62% 220 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 75.7% 400 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 79% 600 shares
- Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Yes 58.1% 813 shares
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?No 60% 833.33 shares
- Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Yes 54% 24.3 shares
- Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?No 20.9% 51.5 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 55% 672.78 shares