Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $80.3
- Potential payout
- $112.31
- Potential profit
- $32.01
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- -$9.44
Polymarket Trader
FBG
0x2290c04f24263cc6ec9edea2436b0a92f9d580be
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $102.15
- Realized PnL
- $179.92
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $42.5
- Potential profit
- $42.5
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $3.8
- Potential payout
- $18.52
- Potential profit
- $14.72
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$6.2
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $18.05
- Potential payout
- $18.05
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $4.15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68%
- Multiplier
- 1.47x
- User PnL
- $37.13
Yes position
Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $25.48
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21?
Ends Mar 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $23.89
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.23
Yes position
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.92
Yes position
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.39
No position
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.28
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.64
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.4
Yes position
Will TikTok be banned again before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.61
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.91
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.53
No position
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.33
No position
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.29
Yes position
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.21
Yes position
Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.12
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.93
Yes position
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.82
Yes position
Will Trump announce tariffs on Venezuela on April 2?
Ends Apr 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.59
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.55
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.49
Yes position
TikTok sale announced in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.16
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.1
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.91
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 54% 18.52 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes 71% 168.75 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes 77% 18.05 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Yes 79.9% 112.31 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Yes 71.9% 13.91 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?Yes 27% 13.51 shares
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?Yes 29% 40.81 shares
- Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?Yes 45% 32.78 shares
- Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?Yes 64% 27.39 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes 49% 168.76 shares
- Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?No 19% 5.26 shares
- Maduro out by December 31, 2026?No 54% 37.04 shares