bob-2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $235.1
Potential profit: $235.1
User PnL: -$3.79

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $7.62
Potential payout: $155.55
Potential profit: $147.93
Multiplier: 20.41x
User PnL: -$4.61

Yes position

Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.98
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $149.03
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.67

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $45
Potential payout: $134.32
Potential profit: $89.32
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: -$2.8

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $37.04
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $92.96
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$3.41

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 6.8%
Current value: $8.1
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $111.9
Multiplier: 14.81x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.29
Potential payout: $115
Potential profit: $114.71
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$1.78

Yes position

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $15.85
Potential payout: $113.24
Potential profit: $97.39
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$6.68

Yes position

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $2.35
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $107.65
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: -$0.49

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.35
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $1.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $98.95
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $2.3
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $97.7
Multiplier: 43.48x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $98.5
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.85
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.15
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $1.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $98.55
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.55
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.95
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.05
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.95
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.05
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $99.34
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$1.35

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $1.25
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $98.74
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.8
Potential payout: $88.61
Potential profit: $87.81
Multiplier: 111.11x
User PnL: -$1.27

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.47
Potential payout: $86
Potential profit: $85.53
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$0.39

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 7.6%
Current value: $5.7
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $69.3
Multiplier: 13.16x
User PnL: -$1.8

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $73.5
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: -$5.25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $50.07

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.11

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.69

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.54

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.11

Yes position

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.03

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.7

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.35

Yes position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.55

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.93

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.95

Yes position

Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: $7.79

Yes position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.9

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.45

Yes position

Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: $5.94

Yes position

Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $5.55

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.43

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.28

No position

Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?