Polymarket Trader

floppyio

0x229adac2d20461676a79f23a22abf5beddaddbc8

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $84.71
Realized PnL: $596.19
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?

Ends Jul 18, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $12.93
Potential payout: $13.54
Potential profit: $0.61
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $3.95
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $6.05
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 60.4%
Current value: $5.94
Potential payout: $9.84
Potential profit: $3.9
Multiplier: 1.66x
User PnL: $0.94

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?

Ends Jul 18, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $4.95
Potential payout: $9.62
Potential profit: $4.66
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on July 16?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.09
Potential profit: $9.09
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 58.4%
Current value: $5.01
Potential payout: $8.59
Potential profit: $3.58
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 77%
Current value: $6.53
Potential payout: $8.47
Potential profit: $1.95
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: $1.53

No position

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 71.5%
Current value: $5.11
Potential payout: $7.14
Potential profit: $2.04
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 51%
Current value: $3.36
Potential payout: $6.58
Potential profit: $3.22
Multiplier: 1.96x
User PnL: -$1.64

No position

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?

Ends Jul 24, 2026

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $5.81
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $0.44
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.81

No position

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 17, 2026?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $6.16
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $0.09
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $1.16

Yes position

Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 20?

Ends Jul 26, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $1.84
Potential payout: $6.02
Potential profit: $4.18
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$3.16

Yes position

Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 20?

Ends Jul 26, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Current value: $3.01
Potential payout: $6.02
Potential profit: $3.01
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: -$1.99

No position

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $5.12
Potential payout: $5.95
Potential profit: $0.83
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.12

No position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $4.97
Potential payout: $5.56
Potential profit: $0.58
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

GTA 6 launch postponed again?

Ends Nov 19, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $4.97
Potential payout: $5.43
Potential profit: $0.46
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 96.3%
Current value: $5.05
Potential payout: $5.25
Potential profit: $0.2
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.05

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.25

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.19

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.17

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.44

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.08

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.42

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.92

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.92

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.48

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.33

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.92

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Ends Feb 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.83

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.79

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

Ends Feb 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.76

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.68

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.5

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.75

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.55

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 7AM ET

Ends Jan 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.13

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET

Ends Feb 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.67

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.42

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?

Yes 52% 9.62 shares
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 16?

No 99.9% 5.1 shares
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on July 16?

Yes 99.7% 19.11 shares
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on July 16?

Yes 98.9% 10.11 shares
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on July 16?

No 99.9% 10.86 shares
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?

No 96% 13.54 shares
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

No 70% 7.14 shares
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?

No 80% 6.25 shares
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?

Yes 76% 6.58 shares
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?

No 84% 5.95 shares
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on July 16?

Yes 37% 9 shares
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on July 16?

Yes 55% 9.09 shares