Ideal

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $7.87K
Potential payout: $8.02K
Potential profit: $156.42
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $110.02

No position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 85.8%
Current value: $6.29K
Potential payout: $7.33K
Potential profit: $1.05K
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$12.65

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 9.7%
Current value: $432.6
Potential payout: $4.48K
Potential profit: $4.05K
Multiplier: 10.36x
User PnL: -$46.49

No position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 95.7%
Current value: $4.24K
Potential payout: $4.44K
Potential profit: $193.05
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: -$72.43

No position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $3.46K
Potential payout: $4.3K
Potential profit: $840.65
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $380.35

No position

Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $2.98K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $19.5
User PnL: -$1.5

No position

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $2.66K
Potential payout: $2.8K
Potential profit: $139.95
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $111.96

No position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $1.67K
Potential payout: $1.89K
Potential profit: $218.45
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$70.71

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $1.05K
Potential payout: $1.8K
Potential profit: $747
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $81

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.2%
Current value: $1.69K
Potential payout: $1.8K
Potential profit: $105.3
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $146.7

No position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 94.8%
Current value: $1.23K
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $68.25
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $35.75

No position

Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $1.28K
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $18.85
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $25.13

No position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 95.8%
Current value: $746.22
Potential payout: $779.34
Potential profit: $33.12
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $21.43

Yes position

Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $2.63
Potential payout: $750.38
Potential profit: $747.76
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$13.78

No position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $650.88
Potential payout: $696.5
Potential profit: $45.62
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$7.72

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $362
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $38
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $18

No position

Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $316
Potential payout: $320
Potential profit: $4
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $15.57

No position

ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $313.46
Potential payout: $313.46
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $87.77

No position

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $281.85
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $18.15
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $20.87

No position

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $238.84
Potential profit: $238.84
User PnL: -$60.31

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $221
Potential profit: $221
User PnL: -$35.36

No position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $195.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $4.5
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $3.5

No position

Trump out as President by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $115.99
Potential payout: $115.99
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $5.38

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $25
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Biden drop out by Monday?

Ends Jul 22, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.65K

Yes position

Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.65K

Yes position

Will RFK Jr. win <1% of the popular vote?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.28K

Yes position

1 Trump vs. Harris debate before election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.19K

Yes position

Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $738.66

No position

Will Elon Musk buy MSNBC?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $570.59

No position

Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $539.11

Yes position

Winning candidate also wins popular vote?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $524.72

No position

Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $459.66

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $440.19

No position

Will Kamala Harris say "Price control" during Friday speech?

Ends Aug 16, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $436.12

Yes position

Will Biden finish his term?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $411.17

No position

Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic VP nominee?

Ends Aug 21, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $394.08

Yes position

Biden drops out of presidential race?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $377.56

No position

Trump removed via 25th Amendment in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $344.19

No position

Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $326.71

No position

Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?

Ends Aug 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $314.3

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $306.86

No position

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $282.99

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $281.34

No position

Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $278.88

No position

Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?

Ends Aug 22, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $269.77

No position

Will Canada join US as 51st state in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $242.43

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?