0x244bD1816500aD00DF93664bBE0e9c184C2FF8f2-1782477985345

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 29?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $49.61
Potential profit: $49.51
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$1.9

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 29?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37.86
Potential profit: $37.86
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.03
Potential profit: $30.03
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.67
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in July 2026?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $0.68
Potential payout: $16.05
Potential profit: $15.37
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in July 2026?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $0.74
Potential payout: $12.6
Potential profit: $11.87
Multiplier: 17.09x
User PnL: -$0.26

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $6.25
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $5.56
Potential profit: $5.55
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.99

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $1.07
Potential payout: $4.35
Potential profit: $3.28
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.17
Potential profit: $4.17
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.17
Potential profit: $4.16
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 1?

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $0.9
Potential payout: $4
Potential profit: $3.1
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4
Potential profit: $4
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $0.54
Potential payout: $3.57
Potential profit: $3.04
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$0.46

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.45
Potential profit: $3.45
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $0.78
Potential payout: $3.33
Potential profit: $2.55
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$0.22

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 2?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $1.25
Potential payout: $3.33
Potential profit: $2.08
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 1?

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $0.79
Potential payout: $3.23
Potential profit: $2.44
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$0.21

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.13
Potential profit: $3.13
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.03
Potential profit: $3.03
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 1?

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $1.89
Potential payout: $3.03
Potential profit: $1.14
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $0.89

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 1?

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $0.96
Potential payout: $2.94
Potential profit: $1.99
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$0.04

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 81%
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $4.1

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $3.21

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: $2.35

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.93

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 29?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.87

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $1.41

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.3

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.53

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Implied probability: 3%
Multiplier: 33.33x
User PnL: $0.48

Up position

Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $0.32

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.19

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.02

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 29?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.12

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 35°C on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.23

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.84

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 29?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.93

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET