eq44234d

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $278.19
Potential payout: $325.37
Potential profit: $47.18
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $38.67

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $3.38
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $246.63
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$1.63

No position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $228.89
Potential payout: $229.7
Potential profit: $0.8
User PnL: $26.2

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $219.45
Potential payout: $220
Potential profit: $0.55
User PnL: $17.05

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $197.72
Potential payout: $199.01
Potential profit: $1.29
User PnL: $24.75

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $4.16
Potential payout: $185
Potential profit: $180.84
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $5.74
Potential payout: $135
Potential profit: $129.26
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: $0.74

No position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $108.55
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $21.45
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $7.15

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 83.8%
Current value: $108.09
Potential payout: $129.07
Potential profit: $20.97
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $47.25

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $119.64
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $0.36
User PnL: $16.68

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.7%
Current value: $115.98
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $4.02
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $11.58

Yes position

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $1.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $98.55
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$0.35

Yes position

Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $3.85
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $96.15
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: $0.55

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $5.4
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $94.6
Multiplier: 18.52x
User PnL: $0.4

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $90
User PnL: -$1.53

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.5%
Current value: $86.85
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $3.15
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $13.95

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $3.29
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $86.72
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$1.76

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $88.04
Potential payout: $88.57
Potential profit: $0.53
User PnL: $21.68

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $79.55
Potential payout: $79.99
Potential profit: $0.44
User PnL: $4.36

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $78.39
Potential profit: $78.39
User PnL: -$30.3

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $48.38
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $26.63
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $1.88

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $1.44
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $68.57
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$10.47

No position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 43.4%
Current value: $21.7
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $28.3
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $5.05

No position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $29.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $20.25
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $13.25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.03

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.28

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.03

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.02

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.92

No position

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.24

KT Rolster Challengers position

LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.96

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.2

No position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.66

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $33.12

No position

Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.81

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.8

No position

Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.72

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.27

No position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.55

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.32

No position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.46

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.58

No position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.43

No position

Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.8

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.07

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.69

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?