Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $5.4
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $194.6
- Multiplier
- 37.04x
- User PnL
- -$4.6
Polymarket Trader
aruuuuu
0x2497765132e7a036484b887964f5a5828383ee2a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $35.63
- Realized PnL
- $15.4
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 1
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 13?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $2.14
- Potential payout
- $147.8
- Potential profit
- $145.66
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$8.86
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 13?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.4%
- Current value
- $5.33
- Potential payout
- $43.17
- Potential profit
- $37.84
- Multiplier
- 8.10x
- User PnL
- -$7.93
Yes position
Will England win on 2026-07-15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.4%
- Current value
- $14.36
- Potential payout
- $39.47
- Potential profit
- $25.12
- Multiplier
- 2.75x
- User PnL
- -$0.64
Yes position
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 10%
- Current value
- $3.5
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $31.5
- Multiplier
- 10.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Yes position
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.1%
- Current value
- $4.9
- Potential payout
- $11.9
- Potential profit
- $7.01
- Multiplier
- 2.43x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.4
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes 14.3% 35 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 13?Yes 30.7% 43.17 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 13?Yes 7.4% 147.8 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 5% 200 shares
- Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?Yes 24.5% 20.4 shares
- Will France win on 2026-07-14?Yes 42% 11.9 shares
- Will England win on 2026-07-15?Yes 38% 39.47 shares