No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89%
- Current value
- $200
- Potential payout
- $224.72
- Potential profit
- $24.72
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$0
Polymarket Trader
Yartemoslav
0x249c3afeed6554cf43f97910876c51ff7a4cd01b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $791.55
- Realized PnL
- $54.35
- Win rate
- 77.3%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 22
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.8%
- Current value
- $199.23
- Potential payout
- $207.96
- Potential profit
- $8.73
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.77
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $200.32
- Potential payout
- $207.26
- Potential profit
- $6.94
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.32
N
No position
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $95.19
- Potential payout
- $192.31
- Potential profit
- $97.12
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- -$4.81
No position
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.86
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?
Ends Aug 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $96.81
- Potential payout
- $133.53
- Potential profit
- $36.72
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- -$3.19
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.71
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $34.59
No position
Israel military action against Iran in July?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.58
No position
Ukraine hits Moscow before 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25
No position
Elon forms new party within 1 day of the spending bill passing?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.48
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?
Ends Jan 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.22
No position
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.05
No position
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.65
No position
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.36
No position
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.5
No position
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?
Ends Jul 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.01
No position
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?
Ends Jul 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.7
No position
Israel strikes Iranian oil in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.7
No position
Ukraine election scheduled in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.25
No position
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday?
Ends Dec 1, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.84
No position
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.83
No position
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.21
Yes position
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.33
Yes position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?
Ends Nov 18, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?No 74.9% 133.53 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 96.5% 207.26 shares
- Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes 96.2% 207.96 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?No 89% 224.72 shares
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?No 52% 192.31 shares
- Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before August?No 98.8% 101.21 shares
- Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?No 92% 108.7 shares
- Israel military action against Iran in July?No 76% 131.58 shares
- Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?No 98.2% 101.83 shares
- Elon forms new party within 1 day of the spending bill passing?No 83% 120.48 shares
- Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?No 70% 142.86 shares
- Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?No 90.9% 110.01 shares