Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $59.17K
- Potential profit
- $59.17K
- User PnL
- -$13.96K
Polymarket Trader
noblesse.oblige
0x24d2dce995531ddcde1960388cbf20f5edd41472
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $552.54
- Realized PnL
- $36.62K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.57K
- Potential profit
- $14.57K
- User PnL
- -$4.45K
Yes position
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $392.52
- Potential payout
- $3.41K
- Potential profit
- $3.02K
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$435.02
Yes position
Will Russia rejoin the G7 in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.76K
- Potential profit
- $1.76K
- User PnL
- -$105.4
Yes position
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.73
- Potential payout
- $1.47K
- Potential profit
- $1.47K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.87
Yes position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.37K
- Potential profit
- $1.37K
- User PnL
- -$155.24
Yes position
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $3.03
- Potential payout
- $1.21K
- Potential profit
- $1.21K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$17.77
Yes position
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $1.45
- Potential payout
- $724.08
- Potential profit
- $722.63
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.55
Yes position
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $1.25
- Potential payout
- $623.72
- Potential profit
- $622.47
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.25
Yes position
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $4.96
- Potential payout
- $583.58
- Potential profit
- $578.61
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$8.06
Yes position
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $572.14
- Potential profit
- $572.14
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $433.33
- Potential profit
- $433.33
- User PnL
- -$2.1
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $413.72
- Potential profit
- $413.72
- User PnL
- -$7.71
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $250
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $244.42
- Potential profit
- $244.42
- User PnL
- -$3.66
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.11
- Potential payout
- $211.81
- Potential profit
- $211.7
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.7
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $199.9
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$9.9
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $138.77
- Potential payout
- $150.02
- Potential profit
- $11.25
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $98.46
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- -$7.35
Yes position
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $9.38
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $115.63
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.63
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $93.75
- Potential profit
- $93.75
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.14
- Potential payout
- $91.13
- Potential profit
- $90.99
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.52
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.12
- Potential payout
- $77.38
- Potential profit
- $77.26
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$2.88
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.22K
Yes position
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.44K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
Yes position
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $374.94
Yes position
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $366.55
Yes position
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $293.36
Yes position
Will Biden pardon Fauci?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $292.15
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14?
Ends Mar 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $139.4
Yes position
Will Biden pardon Adam Kinzinger?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $103.66
No position
Nothing Ever Happens
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $102.89
Yes position
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.4
Yes position
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- $18.74
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $83000 on Mar 14?
Ends Mar 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.39
Yes position
Will Giorgia Meloni attend presidential inauguration?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.2
Yes position
Will Biden pardon Trump?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15.64
Yes position
Will Donald Trump say AI or Artificial Intelligence during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?
Ends Feb 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.75
Yes position
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.96
Yes position
Will Biden pardon Jim Biden?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.93
No position
Will Caitlyn Jenner attend presidential inauguration?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.53
Yes position
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $8.18
Yes position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend presidential inauguration?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.85
Yes position
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.6%
- Multiplier
- 39.22x
- User PnL
- $4.57
Yes position
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $3.7
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.38
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Ghana win on 2026-07-03?Yes 12% 41.67 shares
- Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?Yes 8% 62.5 shares
- Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?Yes 0.1% 5,000 shares
- Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?Yes 27% 18.52 shares
- Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?Yes 8% 62.5 shares
- Will Austria win on 2026-07-02?Yes 8% 62.5 shares
- Will Algeria win on 2026-07-02?Yes 24% 20.83 shares
- Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?Yes 39% 12.82 shares
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?Yes 17% 29.41 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 26% 20 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 29% 50 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?Yes 23% 20 shares