monoclith

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $141.86
Potential payout: $193
Potential profit: $51.15
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$6.76

Yes position

Will Jonathan Dearden win Top Chef Season 23?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $184.04
Potential profit: $184.04
User PnL: -$0.18

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $6.89
Potential payout: $153.15
Potential profit: $146.25
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$37.51

No position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $152.92
Potential payout: $153
Potential profit: $0.08
User PnL: $74.89

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 17?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $153
Potential profit: $152.92
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$73.36

No position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18?

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $71.81
Potential payout: $124.89
Potential profit: $53.08
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $4.37

No position

Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 18?

Implied probability: 50%
Current value: $58.5
Potential payout: $117
Potential profit: $58.5
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: -$22.23

Yes position

Will Monica Rodriguez finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $109.66
Potential profit: $109.66
User PnL: -$0.11

No position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $102.86
Potential profit: $102.86
User PnL: -$72.01

No position

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $102
Potential profit: $102
User PnL: -$55.08

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $21.93
Potential payout: $102
Potential profit: $80.07
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$17.85

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $102
Potential profit: $102
User PnL: -$31.62

No position

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $101.95
Potential payout: $102
Potential profit: $0.05
User PnL: $39.2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $102
Potential profit: $102
User PnL: -$28.56

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99
Potential profit: $99
User PnL: -$49.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $85
Potential profit: $85
User PnL: -$9.69

Yes position

Will "Mother Mary" be the April film with the highest domestic gross on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $79.44
Potential profit: $79.44
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $79.39
Potential profit: $79.39
User PnL: -$68.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $74
Potential profit: $73.89
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$10.32

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $68.07
Potential profit: $68.04
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$9.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $67
Potential profit: $67
User PnL: -$9.58

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $65.8
Potential profit: $65.8
User PnL: -$19.08

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $63.15
Potential profit: $63.15
User PnL: -$25.26

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 13?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61
Potential profit: $61
User PnL: -$23.18

No position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61
Potential profit: $61
User PnL: -$41.48

No position

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61
Potential profit: $61
User PnL: -$33.55

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61
Potential profit: $61
User PnL: -$44.53

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61
Potential profit: $61
User PnL: -$27.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60.78
Potential profit: $60.78
User PnL: -$12.85

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $59.73
Potential profit: $59.73
User PnL: -$15.53

No position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $54.55
Potential profit: $54.55
User PnL: -$24.55

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 13?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $51.83
Potential profit: $51.83
User PnL: -$21.27

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50.88
Potential profit: $50.88
User PnL: -$5.1

No position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$42.75

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$19

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$3.7

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$4.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $12.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $37.25
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $2.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$3.35

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.6
Potential profit: $49.6
User PnL: -$10.91

No position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.38
Potential profit: $49.38
User PnL: -$8.89

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $46.02
Potential profit: $46.02
User PnL: -$16.11

Yes position

Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $44.7
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43
Potential profit: $43
User PnL: -$13.33

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42.21
Potential profit: $42.21
User PnL: -$1.62

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $32.6
Potential payout: $41
Potential profit: $8.41
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $1.84

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40.44
Potential profit: $40.44
User PnL: -$25.48

No position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $29.8
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $10.2
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: -$1.8

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

Ends Feb 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $298.23

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.55

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.99

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 14?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.12

No position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.94

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.27

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.91

No position

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 16?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.56

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.97

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.24

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.84

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 16?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.62

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.56

No position

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.54

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $32.39

No position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.52

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.02

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.95

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.82

No position

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.58

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.06

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.84

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.93

No position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.48

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.32

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET

Ends Jan 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.73

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.57

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.28

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.62

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.05

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.04

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.01

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.89

No position

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.72

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.44

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

Ends Jan 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.4

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.05

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.84

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET

Ends Jan 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.35

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.23

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.93

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

Ends Jan 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.65

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.22

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET