Yes position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $1K
- Potential payout
- $10.56K
- Potential profit
- $9.56K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$41.68
Polymarket Trader
Kermit523
0x251873424b82377ca0f1e1eccbb381c95d6731ad
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.98K
- Realized PnL
- $3.92K
- Win rate
- 55.6%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 18
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.33K
- Potential profit
- $1.33K
- User PnL
- -$70
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $111.76
- Potential payout
- $1.18K
- Potential profit
- $1.06K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$88.23
Yes position
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.09K
- Potential profit
- $1.09K
- User PnL
- -$400
Yes position
Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.04K
- Potential profit
- $1.04K
- User PnL
- -$110
N
No position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $816.91
- Potential payout
- $820.61
- Potential profit
- $3.69
- User PnL
- $116.92
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $769.23
- Potential profit
- $769.23
- User PnL
- -$500
Yes position
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $54.78
- Potential payout
- $644.44
- Potential profit
- $589.67
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$5.22
Y
Yes position
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $13.38
- Potential payout
- $545.95
- Potential profit
- $532.58
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- -$186.62
N
No position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $464.82
- Potential profit
- $464.82
- User PnL
- -$100
Y
Yes position
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $437.63
- Potential payout
- $450.93
- Potential profit
- $13.3
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $237.63
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 14.2%
- Current value
- $43.95
- Potential payout
- $308.64
- Potential profit
- $264.69
- Multiplier
- 7.02x
- User PnL
- -$6.05
No position
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $195.9
- Potential payout
- $207.85
- Potential profit
- $11.95
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$4.1
No position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $172.41
- Potential profit
- $172.41
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 27%
- Current value
- $44.82
- Potential payout
- $165.99
- Potential profit
- $121.17
- Multiplier
- 3.70x
- User PnL
- -$5.18
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30%
- Current value
- $40.91
- Potential payout
- $136.36
- Potential profit
- $95.45
- Multiplier
- 3.33x
- User PnL
- -$19.09
N
No position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $118.86
- Potential payout
- $120.06
- Potential profit
- $1.2
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $18.86
No position
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $92.44
- Potential payout
- $110.05
- Potential profit
- $17.61
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- -$7.56
Yes position
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $2.95
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $42.5
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$2.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.34K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.21K
No position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1K
Yes position
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $511.37
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $119.27
N
No position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.35
No position
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.3
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.65
Yes position
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.47
Yes position
Will 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.32
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will 6–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.34
Yes position
Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.61
No position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$87.91
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$99.56
N
No position
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$246.58
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Russia coup attempt in 2026?Yes 9% 111.11 shares
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes 9% 1,111.11 shares
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 57.1% 175 shares
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?No 97.9% 102.18 shares
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 37% 270.27 shares
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 36.3% 275.68 shares
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 36.2% 275.93 shares
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?No 83.3% 120.06 shares
- UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?No 95.1% 105.13 shares
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?No 42% 0.24 shares
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?No 45% 184 shares
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?No 44.7% 100 shares