No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.1%
- Current value
- $4.95K
- Potential payout
- $6.03K
- Potential profit
- $1.08K
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- -$482.02
Polymarket Trader
Arashi9527
@slomotion777
0x256746a9795d299aac7dc5917b294d645c41e51d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $12.49K
- Realized PnL
- $525.44
- Win rate
- 83.3%
- Open positions
- 16
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $4.05K
- Potential payout
- $4.06K
- Potential profit
- $14.22
- User PnL
- $48.52
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $1.33K
- Potential payout
- $1.34K
- Potential profit
- $8.02
- User PnL
- $97.55
No position
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.1%
- Current value
- $712.79
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $382.96
- Multiplier
- 1.54x
- User PnL
- -$278.67
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.6%
- Current value
- $992.12
- Potential payout
- $1.07K
- Potential profit
- $79.86
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.4
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.9%
- Current value
- $196.77
- Potential payout
- $219
- Potential profit
- $22.23
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- -$8.43
No position
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Current value
- $9.17
- Potential payout
- $188.99
- Potential profit
- $179.82
- Multiplier
- 20.62x
- User PnL
- -$5.45
No position
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $105.49
- Potential payout
- $121.25
- Potential profit
- $15.76
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- -$1.21
Yes position
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Current value
- $3.88
- Potential payout
- $79.99
- Potential profit
- $76.11
- Multiplier
- 20.62x
- User PnL
- -$12.12
No position
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $64.13
- Potential payout
- $75
- Potential profit
- $10.88
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $0.78
No position
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $47.25
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $22.75
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- -$4.75
No position
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $16.98
- Potential payout
- $25.15
- Potential profit
- $8.17
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $1.46
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $1.25
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $8.75
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$5.25
No position
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $9.35
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.65
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Current value
- $4.15
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.85
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Yes position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.96
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$1.16
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $404.15
No position
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.22
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.3
No position
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $26.76
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $26.22
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $10.65
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.65
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $6.61
No position
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $5.25
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 72%
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- $4.95
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.01
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.74
No position
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- $2.21
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.9
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.9
Yes position
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.84
No position
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.6
No position
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- $0.6
Yes position
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.3
N
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- -$1.1
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$28.21
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- -$35.45
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?No 90.1% 370 shares
- Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?No 89.6% 94.44 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No 93.7% 219 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 93.1% 2.82 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No 98.1% 9 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No 92% 30 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?No 95% 70 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 95.1% 200 shares
- Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?No 99.1% 50 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 94.7% 100 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 88.7% 50 shares
- Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?No 66% 28.33 shares