No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.4%
- Current value
- $472.51
- Potential payout
- $540.63
- Potential profit
- $68.12
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$1.2
Polymarket Trader
0x2583...261a
0x2583829535661016b85cea56eab41a2a5280261a
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $815.38
- Realized PnL
- $1.11K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 12
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $31.67
- Potential payout
- $333.33
- Potential profit
- $301.67
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$8.33
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.8%
- Current value
- $158.96
- Potential payout
- $179.1
- Potential profit
- $20.15
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $38.96
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $11.59
- Potential payout
- $136.36
- Potential profit
- $124.77
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$18.41
Y
Yes position
Will Trump say "UFC" this week?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $115.16
- Potential profit
- $115.16
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $114.41
- Potential profit
- $114.41
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $98.76
- Potential payout
- $113.51
- Potential profit
- $14.76
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $49.01
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $105.36
- Potential profit
- $105.36
- User PnL
- -$55
N
No position
Will Trump say "UFC" this week?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$74.54
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $1.82
- Potential payout
- $66.33
- Potential profit
- $64.51
- Multiplier
- 36.36x
- User PnL
- -$8.13
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 66.5%
- Current value
- $40.08
- Potential payout
- $60.27
- Potential profit
- $20.19
- Multiplier
- 1.50x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $34.48
- Potential profit
- $34.48
- User PnL
- -$10
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $184.01
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.92
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.5
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.33
No position
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m?
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.2
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.47
No position
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.75
Nothing position
Nothing Ever Happens: March
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.07
No position
Will Trump talk to Maria Corina Machado in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.63
Yes position
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.71
No position
Will Trump say "N Word" in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.65
Yes position
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Baby" during the next White House Press Briefing?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.63
No position
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.55
No position
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.96
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.03
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.33
No position
Will Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" this week? (April 5)
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.48
Yes position
Will Trump say "Job" 15+ times during Memphis Roundtable?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.02
Yes position
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? (March 8)
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.56
No position
Will Trump say "King Charles" this week? (April 12)
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.78
Yes position
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week? (March 29)
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19
Yes position
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week? (April 19)
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.23
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.86
Yes position
Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.95
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?Yes 43.8% 113.51 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Yes 15% 66.33 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?No 66.4% 60.27 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 22% 136.36 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?No 13.7% 130.43 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15?Yes 29% 34.48 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15?Yes 52.2% 105.36 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14?No 85.5% 52.64 shares
- Will Trump say "UFC" this week?Yes 86.8% 115.16 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?No 23% 130.43 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes 67% 179.1 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?Yes 4.4% 114.41 shares