Polymarket Trader

BearHug

0x25f70ed19567940ebd3e0741e85c1ff2bc819e74

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $161.21
Realized PnL: $512.87
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 11
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $9.9
Potential payout: $208.33
Potential profit: $198.44
Multiplier: 21.05x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $48.46
Potential payout: $129.41
Potential profit: $80.95
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: -$6.54

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $16.07
Potential payout: $119.05
Potential profit: $102.98
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$8.93

Up position

SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 40%
Current value: $47.62
Potential payout: $119.05
Potential profit: $71.43
Multiplier: 2.50x
User PnL: -$2.38

Yes position

Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $25.31
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $37.19
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: $0.31

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.1%
Current value: $11
Potential payout: $47.62
Potential profit: $36.62
Multiplier: 4.33x
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45.54
Potential profit: $45.54
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.23
Potential profit: $36.23
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32.26
Potential profit: $32.26
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $2.85
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $27.15
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$12.15

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.42

Yes position

Yoon arrested by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.2

Yes position

Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.5

Yes position

Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on July 18?

Ends Jul 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36

Yes position

Will Biden pardon Fauci?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.88

Yes position

Will Biden pardon Jim Biden?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.5

Yes position

Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024?

Ends Dec 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24

No position

Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.69

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 31 at 5 PM ET?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?

Ends Dec 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.32

Gane position

Gane vs. Volkov

Ends Dec 7, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.3

No position

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Ends Apr 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.41

Yes position

Liverpool wins the Premier League?

Ends May 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.76

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?

Ends Jan 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.74

Yes position

Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.5

Lightning position

Rangers vs. Lightning

Ends Jan 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.33

Yes position

Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.6

Yes position

Will Usyk beat Fury?

Ends Dec 21, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.25

No position

South Korean President impeached by Friday?

Ends Dec 6, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.23

Yes position

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.23

No position

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11

No position

Iran leadership change by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?

Yes 40% 62.5 shares
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?

Yes 69% 36.23 shares
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?

Yes 62% 16.13 shares
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 4.8% 208.33 shares
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?

Yes 31% 32.26 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?

Yes 63% 15.87 shares
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?

Yes 68% 29.41 shares
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?

Yes 14% 71.43 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Yes 68% 36.76 shares
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Yes 21% 119.05 shares
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?

Up 42% 119.05 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

Yes 64% 78.13 shares