0x26B26AC3b434B12Ee2D5A3310b2F62cE38164486-1759170895273

Implied probability: 94.4%
Current value: $13.78K
Potential payout: $14.6K
Potential profit: $824.9
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $103.16

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $13.03K
Potential payout: $14.4K
Potential profit: $1.37K
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $2.53K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $11.69K
Potential payout: $11.7K
Potential profit: $5.85
User PnL: $2.47K

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $5.54K
Potential payout: $6.4K
Potential profit: $864.43
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$131.23

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $4.3K
Potential payout: $5.15K
Potential profit: $849.75
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $40.26

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.31K
Potential profit: $3.31K
User PnL: -$2.51K

No position

Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $3K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $1.5
User PnL: $115.5

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $594.33
Potential payout: $2.9K
Potential profit: $2.3K
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$405.67

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.7K
Potential profit: $2.7K
User PnL: -$1.9K

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $2.07K
Potential payout: $2.33K
Potential profit: $268.36
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $565.21

No position

Maduro out by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.23K
Potential profit: $2.23K
User PnL: -$2K

No position

Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $1.84K
Potential payout: $2.03K
Potential profit: $182.42
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $244.43

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $1.99K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $13
User PnL: $287

Yes position

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.8K
Potential profit: $1.8K
User PnL: -$200

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $1.25K
Potential payout: $1.4K
Potential profit: $147
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $91

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.4K
Potential profit: $1.4K
User PnL: -$1.2K

No position

Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.37K
Potential profit: $1.37K
User PnL: -$200

No position

Maduro out by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.34K
Potential profit: $1.34K
User PnL: -$1.1K

No position

Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.06K
Potential profit: $1.06K
User PnL: -$1K

No position

Will MrBeast hit 105.5 billion views by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $1.01K
User PnL: -$1K

No position

Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $855
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $145
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $77.86

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 41.6%
Current value: $384.72
Potential payout: $925.93
Potential profit: $541.2
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$115.28

No position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $900
Potential profit: $900
User PnL: -$485

No position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $759.38
Potential profit: $759.38
User PnL: -$631.97

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.32K

G2 Esports position

LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs

Ends Mar 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.14K

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13K

Yes position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 million?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.03K

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $915.53

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $906.56

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?

Ends Jan 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $828.22

Yes position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 million?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $773.21

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $665.59

Yes position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 million?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $623.96

No position

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $593.26

No position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $497.23

Yes position

Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $494.57

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $485.44

No position

Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $453.19

No position

Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $421.45

Yes position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $367.14

Yes position

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $366.02

No position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $363.3

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $352.03

Yes position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $271.57

Yes position

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $268.87

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $244.24

No position

Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?