Milin-dc

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $306
Potential payout: $450.01
Potential profit: $144
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: -$27.19

No position

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $288.01
Potential payout: $300.01
Potential profit: $12
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $3.76

No position

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $271.51
Potential payout: $300.01
Potential profit: $28.5
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $5.93

No position

Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $286.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $13.5
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $6.32

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $285.75
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $14.25
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $2.7

No position

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $208.76
Potential payout: $250.01
Potential profit: $41.25
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $6.41

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $217.35
Potential payout: $230
Potential profit: $12.65
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $31.37

Yes position

Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $8.86
Potential payout: $230
Potential profit: $221.15
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$20.8

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 32%
Current value: $70.4
Potential payout: $220
Potential profit: $149.6
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: -$0.51

No position

Will Mexico go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $51
Potential payout: $200.01
Potential profit: $149.01
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $9.29

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $85
Potential payout: $200.01
Potential profit: $115
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$3.4

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $199.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $0.7
User PnL: $2.24

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $181
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $19
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $16.19

No position

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.4%
Current value: $188.7
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $11.3
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $6.2

No position

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $187
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $13
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $3.1

No position

Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $151
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $49
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $8

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $199.1
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $0.9
User PnL: $6.2

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $187
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $13
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $12.77

No position

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $138.01
Potential payout: $150.01
Potential profit: $12
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $11.39

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $54.75
Potential payout: $150.01
Potential profit: $95.25
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: $0.75

No position

Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $132
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $18
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $4.57

No position

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Implied probability: 87.8%
Current value: $131.63
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $18.38
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $3.18

No position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.6%
Current value: $122.92
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $7.09
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$0.69

No position

Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $87.49
Potential payout: $124.99
Potential profit: $37.5
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: $1.9

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $176.9

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown end between April 27-May 3 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $139.3

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of April 27 2026?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.19

Yes position

Chirayu Rana divorced?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: $73.61

Up position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.55

Yes position

Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.31

Yes position

Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 96.9%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $69.04

Up position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 17?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.07

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.22

No position

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $83 Week of April 20 2026?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.82

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.49

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.53

Yes position

Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $52.7

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.21

No position

Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $47.19

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of April 27 2026?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.08

Yes position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $46.2

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $45.73

Yes position

Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $43.85

Up position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.75

No position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?