Yes position
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.59
- Potential payout
- $78.16
- Potential profit
- $77.57
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.71
Polymarket Trader
0x278F8A49E0662973F4297A2cf8D24aB531FfE428-1765563562265
0x278f8a49e0662973f4297a2cf8d24ab531ffe428
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $39.08
- Realized PnL
- $65.17
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 4%
- Current value
- $0.69
- Potential payout
- $17.54
- Potential profit
- $16.85
- Multiplier
- 25.32x
- User PnL
- -$0.31
Spirit position
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.33
- Potential profit
- $17.33
- User PnL
- -$9
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.7%
- Current value
- $1.79
- Potential payout
- $16.81
- Potential profit
- $15.02
- Multiplier
- 9.39x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
FURIA position
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.36
- Potential profit
- $16.36
- User PnL
- -$6
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?
Ends Jul 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $1.93
- Potential payout
- $13.33
- Potential profit
- $11.4
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.07
No position
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $9.25
- Potential payout
- $11.94
- Potential profit
- $2.69
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $3.6
No position
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $3.09
- Potential payout
- $10.46
- Potential profit
- $7.38
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$2.91
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 21%
- Current value
- $1.75
- Potential payout
- $8.33
- Potential profit
- $6.58
- Multiplier
- 4.76x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
G2 position
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.69
- Potential profit
- $7.69
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $3.18
- Potential payout
- $7.14
- Potential profit
- $3.96
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- $1.18
9z position
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.14
- Potential profit
- $7.14
- User PnL
- -$2
Vitality position
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $7
- User PnL
- -$4.97
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $1.68
- Potential payout
- $5.88
- Potential profit
- $4.21
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- -$0.32
No position
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.38
- Potential profit
- $5.38
- User PnL
- -$5.01
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $1.68
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $3.33
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$0.32
No position
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $2.72
- Potential payout
- $4.35
- Potential profit
- $1.63
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$0.28
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $0.91
- Potential payout
- $4.15
- Potential profit
- $3.24
- Multiplier
- 4.56x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
No position
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $3.27
- Potential payout
- $4.11
- Potential profit
- $0.84
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0.27
FURIA position
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.08
- Potential profit
- $4.08
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.7
- Potential profit
- $3.7
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $2.69
- Potential payout
- $3.13
- Potential profit
- $0.44
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.44
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $1.96
- Potential payout
- $2.86
- Potential profit
- $0.9
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $1.92
- Potential payout
- $2.27
- Potential profit
- $0.35
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.31
Natus Vincere position
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3)
Ends Dec 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.54
FaZe position
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3)
Ends Dec 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.2
No position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.14
Yes position
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $4.76
Vitality position
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3)
Ends Dec 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.26
BetBoom Team position
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.49
Vitality position
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner
Ends Dec 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.25
No position
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
Ends Dec 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.89
Aurora Gaming position
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.78
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.63
9z position
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.56
No position
Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5
FlyQuest position
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5
No position
Will Team Spirit win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?
Ends Dec 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.35
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.29
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.02
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1
No position
Will The MongolZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.94
Over position
Games Total: O/U 3.5
Ends Dec 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.86
GamerLegion position
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.85
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?No 90% 2.22 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?No 15% 13.33 shares
- Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Yes 80% 3.38 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?No 11.9% 16.81 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?No 70% 2.86 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?No 24% 8.33 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?No 40% 5 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?No 96.7% 9.45 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?No 34% 5.88 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?No 28% 7.14 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?Yes 18% 6.21 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 90% 2.73 shares