Yes position
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $526.54
- Potential profit
- $526.54
- User PnL
- -$11.25
Polymarket Trader
0x27b121654A2519815C413ABe6F5de58275e92351-1773548534374
0x27b121654a2519815c413abe6f5de58275e92351
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $211.12
- Realized PnL
- $310.59
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 30%
- Current value
- $130.56
- Potential payout
- $435.19
- Potential profit
- $304.63
- Multiplier
- 3.33x
- User PnL
- -$148.85
Yes position
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $405.58
- Potential profit
- $405.58
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $132.58
- Potential profit
- $132.58
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $115.34
- Potential profit
- $115.34
- User PnL
- -$19.33
Yes position
Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $112.25
- Potential profit
- $112.25
- User PnL
- -$20
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $99.98
- Potential profit
- $99.98
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $90.44
- Potential profit
- $90.44
- User PnL
- -$77.34
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $71.24
- Potential profit
- $71.24
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $68.6
- Potential profit
- $68.6
- User PnL
- -$19.43
No position
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $55.56
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $42.33
- Potential profit
- $42.33
- User PnL
- -$28.97
Yes position
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $20.42
- Potential payout
- $28.17
- Potential profit
- $7.75
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $0.42
Yes position
Will France win on 2026-06-30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $20.13
- Potential payout
- $25.97
- Potential profit
- $5.84
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $0.13
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23.81
- Potential profit
- $23.81
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $19.88
- Potential payout
- $23.26
- Potential profit
- $3.37
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
Yes position
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $9.91
- Potential payout
- $17.24
- Potential profit
- $7.33
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
Yes position
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.34
- Potential profit
- $15.34
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.6
- Potential profit
- $14.6
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $10.21
- Potential payout
- $13.89
- Potential profit
- $3.68
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $0.21
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.82
- Potential profit
- $12.82
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will England win on 2026-06-23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.35
- Potential profit
- $12.35
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.43
- Potential profit
- $11.43
- User PnL
- -$10
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.33
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $26.24
No position
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.31
No position
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.97
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.28
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.21
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.94
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.41
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.11
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.72
No position
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.44
No position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.24
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.65
Yes position
Will April 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.28
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.58
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.44
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.17
No position
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.1
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.1
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $6.08
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.06
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.49
Yes position
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.29
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.16
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will France win on 2026-06-30?Yes 77% 12.99 shares
- Will United States win on 2026-07-01?Yes 71% 14.08 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?Yes 86% 23.26 shares
- Will France win on 2026-06-30?Yes 77% 12.99 shares
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?Yes 72% 13.89 shares
- Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?Yes 58% 17.24 shares
- Will United States win on 2026-07-01?Yes 71% 14.08 shares
- Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?Yes 58% 17.24 shares
- Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?Yes 83.9% 11.92 shares
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?Yes 65.2% 15.34 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?Yes 83% 12.05 shares
- Will England win on 2026-06-27?Yes 84% 11.9 shares