Polymarket Trader

0x282f3973673e8907223Fb329D9C0E20CeC1788B5-1774787160303

0x282f3973673e8907223fb329d9c0e20cec1788b5

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $151.44
Realized PnL: $13.99
Win rate: 36.4%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 11
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $23.02
Potential payout: $306.92
Potential profit: $283.9
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$16.88

Yes position

Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $3.45
Potential payout: $255.61
Potential profit: $252.16
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$1.55

Yes position

Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $1.25
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $165.42
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $5.19
Potential payout: $128.21
Potential profit: $123.01
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: $0.19

Yes position

Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.81
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $124.19
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $124.06
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $11.88
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $113.13
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $1.88

Yes position

Trump declares election interference national emergency?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $19.43
Potential payout: $80.95
Potential profit: $61.52
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: -$0.57

Yes position

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $78.05
Potential profit: $78.05
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $9.74
Potential payout: $74.9
Potential profit: $65.17
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: $4.74

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 18.3%
Current value: $13.22
Potential payout: $72.46
Potential profit: $59.24
Multiplier: 5.48x
User PnL: -$6.78

Yes position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $3.93
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $67.5
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$1.07

Yes position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau breakup before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.6%
Current value: $3.85
Potential payout: $69.35
Potential profit: $65.5
Multiplier: 18.02x
User PnL: -$6.15

Yes position

Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $2.93
Potential payout: $67.55
Potential profit: $64.62
Multiplier: 23.04x
User PnL: -$7.07

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $7.29
Potential payout: $60.98
Potential profit: $53.69
Multiplier: 8.37x
User PnL: -$2.71

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $1.32
Potential payout: $58.82
Potential profit: $57.5
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: $0.32

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $58.82
Potential profit: $58.82
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.1%
Current value: $10.66
Potential payout: $53.19
Potential profit: $42.53
Multiplier: 4.99x
User PnL: $0.66

Yes position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $16.72
Potential payout: $48.49
Potential profit: $31.76
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$1.22

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $6.43
Potential payout: $47.62
Potential profit: $41.19
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$3.57

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $0.63
Potential payout: $43.48
Potential profit: $42.85
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$0.37

Yes position

X banned in any European country by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $8.75
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $32.92
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: -$1.25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.84

Yes position

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.3

Yes position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.52

No position

Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$28.67

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Trump out as President before 2027?

Yes 13% 306.92 shares
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Yes 20% 25 shares
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?

Yes 6.4% 78.05 shares
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Yes 7% 71.43 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Yes 9% 55.56 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes 21% 47.62 shares
US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Yes 37% 48.49 shares
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Yes 58% 17.9 shares
Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?

Yes 16.7% 30 shares
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Yes 60% 25 shares
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Yes 53% 17.32 shares
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 2.3% 43.48 shares