Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 18.4%
- Current value
- $9.89K
- Potential payout
- $53.9K
- Potential profit
- $44.01K
- Multiplier
- 5.45x
- User PnL
- -$17.06K
Polymarket Trader
ClownPagliacci
0x2853240a0f4e9e11a949a5cfa6e0fe953a293482
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $58.19K
- Realized PnL
- $30.19K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 81.7%
- Current value
- $44.01K
- Potential payout
- $53.9K
- Potential profit
- $9.89K
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $17.06K
Yes position
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $435.41
- Potential payout
- $1.3K
- Potential profit
- $864.32
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- $155.99
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.17K
- Potential profit
- $1.17K
- User PnL
- -$59.31
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$150
No position
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1K
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $9
Yes position
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during the announcement on December 19?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $910.35
- Potential profit
- $910.35
- User PnL
- -$213.96
No position
Will Trump say "Midterm" at Rocky Mount events on Friday?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $798.94
- Potential profit
- $798.94
- User PnL
- -$255.12
Yes position
Will Don’t Be Dumb by A$AP Rocky be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $795.98
- Potential payout
- $795.98
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $9.44
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $700
- Potential profit
- $700
- User PnL
- -$56
No position
Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $694.81
- Potential payout
- $694.81
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $51.92
Yes position
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $586.12
- Potential profit
- $586.12
- User PnL
- -$156.53
Yes position
Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 21m?
Ends Dec 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $427.06
- Potential profit
- $427.06
- User PnL
- -$27.62
No position
Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $400
- User PnL
- -$108.4
No position
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $369.99
- Potential payout
- $369.99
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $23.91
Yes position
Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $334.27
- Potential profit
- $334.27
- User PnL
- -$104.33
No position
Will Slime Cry by YoungBoy Never Broke Again be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $325.74
- Potential payout
- $325.74
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $2.22
No position
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $282
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $18
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $18.61
Yes position
Will Trump say "AI" or "Crypto" during the Hanukkah Reception event on Tuesday?
Ends Dec 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $275.38
- Potential profit
- $275.38
- User PnL
- -$33.05
No position
Will Before I Forget by The Kid LAROI be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $211.79
- Potential payout
- $211.79
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $2.09
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $202.7
- Potential profit
- $202.7
- User PnL
- -$60.35
Yes position
Will Let God Sort Em Out (Clipse Pusha T Malice) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$44
Yes position
Will Bad Bunny perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $177.48
- Potential payout
- $177.48
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $17.13
No position
Will Trump say "Maduro" during the announcement on December 22?
Ends Dec 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $148.14
- Potential profit
- $148.14
- User PnL
- -$84.44
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Taylor Swift release a new original song by October 2?
Ends Oct 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.62K
Yes position
Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.27K
Yes position
Will Leavitt say "Go ahead" 5+ times during next White House press briefing?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.06K
No position
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during the Armenian PM bilateral on August 8?
Ends Aug 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.87K
Yes position
Will Trump say "Peanut" in November?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.84K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.57K
Yes position
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?
Ends Aug 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.48K
No position
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with UK Prime Minister on September 18?
Ends Sep 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.43K
Yes position
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week?
Ends Aug 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25K
No position
Will Donald or Melania Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during executive order signing events on November 13?
Ends Nov 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
Yes position
Will Terence Crawford be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02K
No position
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $923.32
Yes position
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or more?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $817.51
No position
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $800.36
Yes position
Taylor Swift on top two spots of Billboard Hot 100 for Oct 25th?
Ends Oct 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $714.01
Yes position
Will Trump say "Hottest country" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?
Ends Sep 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $700.47
No position
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Xi events on October 29?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $669.64
No position
Will Pedro Pascal be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $659.4
No position
Will Bill Ackman say "Elon" or "Musk" or "Twitter" during the X Space event on November 18?
Ends Nov 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $579.7
No position
Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $571.43
Yes position
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with President of Finland on Oct 9?
Ends Oct 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $570.09
Yes position
Will Trump say "World Cup" this week? (September 29 - October 5)
Ends Oct 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $561.73
No position
Sabrina Carpenter's 'Man's Best Friend' >375k first week sales?
Ends Sep 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $553.08
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $549.9
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump say "MIT" or "Massachusetts Institute of Technology" this week? (February 1)No 70% 28.43 shares
- Will Don’t Be Dumb by A$AP Rocky be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?Yes 98.8% 795.98 shares
- Will Slime Cry by YoungBoy Never Broke Again be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?No 99.3% 325.74 shares
- Will Before I Forget by The Kid LAROI be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?No 99% 211.79 shares
- Will I’m The Problem by Morgan Wallen be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 31?No 99.1% 48.59 shares
- Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child?No 84% 20.76 shares
- Will Trump say "Switzerland" this week? (January 18)No 47% 18.89 shares
- Will Trump say "Switzerland" this week? (January 18)No 44.5% 42 shares
- Will The Fate Of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 song for the week of January 17?Yes 99.5% 269.92 shares
- Will The Fate Of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 song for the week of January 17?Yes 99.5% 506.22 shares
- Will The Fate Of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 song for the week of January 17?Yes 99.5% 525.82 shares
- Will The Fate Of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 song for the week of January 17?Yes 99.5% 3,039.6 shares