Polymarket Trader

shangri-laa

0x294035665ba1558327be723946055e2ea8d6304c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.96K
Realized PnL: $15.38K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 8
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $91.53
Potential payout: $1.93K
Potential profit: $1.84K
Multiplier: 21.05x
User PnL: -$197.23

No position

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $689.92
Potential payout: $1.79K
Potential profit: $1.1K
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: $151.6

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $381.42
Potential payout: $663.33
Potential profit: $281.92
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $82.92

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $112.27
Potential payout: $498.99
Potential profit: $386.72
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: -$40.78

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $307.6
Potential payout: $459.11
Potential profit: $151.51
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: $57.1

No position

Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $243.1
Potential payout: $333.01
Potential profit: $89.91
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: $76.06

No position

Starmer out by August 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 30%
Current value: $87.61
Potential payout: $292.04
Potential profit: $204.43
Multiplier: 3.33x
User PnL: $1.71

No position

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $50.49
Potential payout: $66
Potential profit: $15.51
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $17.96

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.05K

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.7K

Yes position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08K

Yes position

Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $913.06

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $842.2

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $803.03

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 91.9%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $749.49

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $620.02

No position

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $601.01

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $593.97

Yes position

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $553.27

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $481.33

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $451.68

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $448.27

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $392.42

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $367.87

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $365.2

No position

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $364.65

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $357.87

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $356.43

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 68.5%
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: $349.38

No position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $349.05

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $328.62

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $265.84

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Starmer out by August 31, 2026?

No 30% 249.23 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

No 67% 683 shares
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

No 37% 16.92 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

No 67% 246.47 shares
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

No 39.5% 69.8 shares
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?

No 26% 42.81 shares
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

No 37.5% 148.28 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

No 64% 309.03 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

No 64% 98.45 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

No 60% 5 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

No 62% 503.56 shares
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

No 33.8% 299.38 shares