Polymarket Trader

aviato

0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $113.59K
Realized PnL: $176.79K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $40.42K
Potential payout: $40.93K
Potential profit: $511.69
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $1.32K

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $12.21K
Potential payout: $12.29K
Potential profit: $79.9
User PnL: $551.11

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $9.71K
Potential payout: $9.74K
Potential profit: $34.11
User PnL: $77.51

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $6.99K
Potential payout: $7.73K
Potential profit: $733.89
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $583.37

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $5.84K
Potential payout: $5.9K
Potential profit: $56.05
User PnL: $161.02

No position

Will Hunter Biden announce a Delaware Senate run by July 14?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $4.12K
Potential payout: $4.21K
Potential profit: $94.78
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $49.57

No position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $3.97K
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $28
User PnL: $84

No position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $3.2K
Potential payout: $3.24K
Potential profit: $40.5
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $163.42

No position

Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $2.29K
Potential payout: $2.3K
Potential profit: $12.67
User PnL: $34.32

No position

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $2.23K
Potential payout: $2.25K
Potential profit: $19.14
User PnL: $37.36

No position

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 94.4%
Current value: $2.06K
Potential payout: $2.19K
Potential profit: $123.53
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $110.89

No position

New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $1.97K
Potential payout: $2.09K
Potential profit: $114.9
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $31.34

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $1.91K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $94
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $2

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $1.87K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $130
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $130

No position

Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $1.85K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $151
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $15

No position

Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.9%
Current value: $1.9K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $103
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: -$3

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $1.9K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $100
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $20

No position

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $1.72K
Potential payout: $1.79K
Potential profit: $73.5
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $44.26

No position

Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $1.49K
Potential payout: $1.62K
Potential profit: $129.44
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $59.66

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $1.55K
Potential payout: $1.58K
Potential profit: $35.61
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $91

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $1.35K
Potential payout: $1.44K
Potential profit: $86.4
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$24

No position

Tucker Carlson federally charged?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $1.07K
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $10.3
User PnL: $24.56

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $1.01K
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $12.79
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $28.14

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $942.54
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $57.5
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $26.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the US strike Syria next?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.89K

Yes position

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.83K

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.19K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.53K

Yes position

Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.96K

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.54K

No position

Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.24K

No position

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.91K

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.69K

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.42K

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.11K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.98K

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.92K

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.92K

No position

US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.78K

Yes position

Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.31K

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.09K

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.91K

No position

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.88K

No position

Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 11, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.8K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.74K

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.73K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.72K

No position

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?

Ends Dec 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.69K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

No 97.5% 67.1 shares
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

No 98.8% 608.86 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

No 96% 1,000 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

No 99.9% 8,000 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

No 85% 2,152.92 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

No 99.4% 1,777.46 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

No 99.4% 2,000 shares
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m?

Yes 18% 400 shares
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m?

No 82% 82.23 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

No 99.4% 2,000 shares
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ilia Topuria 80% 1,000 shares
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Josh Hokit 79% 200 shares