Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49%
- Current value
- $49
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $51
- Multiplier
- 2.04x
- User PnL
- -$1
Polymarket Trader
M3RL1N
0x2a3421bf4d7a50b2f88d36b822208bab0fa556cf
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $309.2
- Realized PnL
- $11.5K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Current value
- $14.57
- Potential payout
- $52.99
- Potential profit
- $38.42
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- -$1.54
Yes position
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $4
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $46
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $4.5
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $45.5
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Jordan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4%
- Current value
- $2
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $48
- Multiplier
- 25.00x
- User PnL
- -$4
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $42.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $7.25
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $5.75
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $7.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $42.75
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$3.25
N
No position
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $37
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $3
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $25.4
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.3%
- Current value
- $36.1
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $3.9
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $29.7
Yes position
Will Ismael Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $5.4
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $34.6
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$10.6
Y
Yes position
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $2.93
- Potential payout
- $39
- Potential profit
- $36.08
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$19.38
No position
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $19.13
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $5.88
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $6.63
Yes position
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $5.88
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $19.13
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- $0.88
N
No position
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $5.9
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $14.1
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$1.1
No position
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $17.1
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $2.9
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $1.5
Yes position
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $3
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $17
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.4
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $14.1
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $5.9
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $10.7
Y
Yes position
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $4.1
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $15.9
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$12.1
N
No position
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Cup Match?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 39%
- Current value
- $7.8
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $12.2
- Multiplier
- 2.56x
- User PnL
- $6.2
Y
Yes position
Will South Korea be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $2.7
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $17.3
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$14.1
Y
Yes position
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 26%
- Current value
- $5.2
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $14.8
- Multiplier
- 3.85x
- User PnL
- -$2.4
N
No position
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $15.9
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $4.1
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $10.1
Yes position
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $2.9
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $17.1
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$3.3
Yes position
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.56
- Potential profit
- $16.56
- User PnL
- -$4.14
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Mets position
Mets vs. Giants
Ends Aug 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.41K
Mets position
Mets vs. Giants
Ends Aug 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $925
CHI position
Spread: DAL (-1.5)
Ends Sep 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $912.01
Pirates position
Pirates vs. Giants
Ends Aug 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $823.96
Marlins position
Marlins vs. Cardinals
Ends Aug 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $757.8
Athletics position
Athletics vs. Astros
Ends Aug 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $687.27
IND position
Spread: IND (-4.5)
Ends Sep 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $617.53
Stars position
Oilers vs. Stars
Ends May 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $510.74
Astros position
Astros vs. Rangers
Ends Sep 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $484.63
Athletics position
Athletics vs. Astros
Ends Aug 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $479.54
Rangers position
Braves vs. Rangers
Ends Aug 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $400.22
Blue Jays position
Blue Jays vs. Tigers
Ends Aug 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $380.7
PIT position
Spread: PIT (-1.5)
Ends Sep 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $337.96
Red Sox position
Red Sox vs. Twins
Ends Aug 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $304.87
Reds position
Rays vs. Reds
Ends Aug 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $296.84
Yes position
Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-21?
Ends May 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $293.38
Cardinals position
Padres vs. Cardinals
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $273.82
Dodgers position
Dodgers vs. Royals
Ends Jul 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $255.57
Marlins position
Marlins vs. Cardinals
Ends Aug 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $236.36
Commanders position
Spread: Commanders (-6.5)
Ends Sep 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $226.69
Rangers position
Braves vs. Rangers
Ends Aug 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $226.59
Tigers position
Tigers vs. Twins
Ends Aug 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $224.15
Royals position
Braves vs. Royals
Ends Aug 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $222.6
Broncos position
Spread: Broncos (-7.5)
Ends Sep 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $209.66
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No 65.7% 40 shares
- Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Yes 49.4% 48.25 shares
- Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No 84% 16.32 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?Yes 2.5% 20 shares
- Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?No 69% 14.99 shares
- Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes 3.2% 63.48 shares
- SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?Down 19% 20 shares
- Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No 93.1% 20 shares
- Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White SoxAtlanta Braves 53% 5.86 shares
- Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?Yes 34% 20 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Yes 91.5% 40 shares
- Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?No 20% 49.39 shares