No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $330.72
- Potential payout
- $361.45
- Potential profit
- $30.72
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $30.72
Polymarket Trader
AthenianAlphas
0x2a34e07de90bbc0b7af15be058fcc7ddbf3d905f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $401.56
- Realized PnL
- $335.53
- Win rate
- 95.8%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $339.01
- Potential profit
- $339.01
- User PnL
- -$32
Yes position
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.4%
- Current value
- $17.21
- Potential payout
- $184.05
- Potential profit
- $166.84
- Multiplier
- 10.70x
- User PnL
- -$60.79
No position
Will the US seize an Iran-linked tanker by Feb 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $83.33
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $75.12
- Potential profit
- $75.12
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.47
- Potential payout
- $62.32
- Potential profit
- $61.85
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$4.53
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 20?
Ends Feb 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $51.58
- Potential profit
- $51.58
- User PnL
- -$40
Yes position
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3%
- Current value
- $1.36
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $44.09
- Multiplier
- 33.33x
- User PnL
- -$8.64
No position
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $29.6
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $10.4
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- -$1.2
Yes position
Prince Andrew charged by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $31.25
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days?
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Winter Games 2026: Athlete to be stripped of medal?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$13
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 12?
Ends Feb 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22
- Potential profit
- $22
- User PnL
- -$14.6
Yes position
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Current value
- $3.2
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $16.8
- Multiplier
- 6.25x
- User PnL
- -$9.95
Yes position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $19
- Potential payout
- $19
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $8.74
Yes position
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.34
- Potential profit
- $17.34
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 10?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.54
- Potential profit
- $11.54
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or below on February 12?
Ends Feb 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.7
- Potential profit
- $9.7
- User PnL
- -$5.92
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $123.3
Yes position
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 14?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.55
No position
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.51
Yes position
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.59
No position
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28?
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.39
No position
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.54
Yes position
Will Claude 5 not be released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.1
Fenerbahce position
Panathinaikos vs. Fenerbahce
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.45
No position
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.49
No position
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.96
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 11?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.9
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.43
No position
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 14?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.4
No position
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.63
No position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.4
No position
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.22
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 10?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.05
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 18?
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 9?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.5
Yes position
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days?
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 11?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.15
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 18?
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 83% 361.45 shares
- US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?No 90% 11.11 shares
- US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?No 70% 11.43 shares
- US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?No 90% 11.11 shares
- Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in March?No 43.5% 11.49 shares
- Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?No 95% 52.63 shares
- Will Trump visit China by March 31?Yes 66.6% 75.12 shares
- Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes 89% 9.86 shares
- Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes 90% 36.67 shares
- Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes 89% 30 shares
- Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes 86% 29.07 shares
- Prince Andrew charged by March 31?Yes 16% 31.25 shares