137N

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $7.89K
Potential payout: $41.65K
Potential profit: $33.76K
Multiplier: 5.28x
User PnL: $1.46K

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.8%
Current value: $5.33K
Potential payout: $38.74K
Potential profit: $33.42K
Multiplier: 7.27x
User PnL: -$11.55

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $674.7
Potential payout: $11.73K
Potential profit: $11.06K
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: $5.87

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.2%
Current value: $1.01K
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $8.98K
Multiplier: 9.85x
User PnL: $35.01

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $139.48
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.86K
Multiplier: 21.51x
User PnL: -$23.55

Germany position

Men's Group C - USA vs. Germany

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.31K
Potential profit: $1.31K
User PnL: -$117.63

Yes position

Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$6

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $132.75
Potential payout: $135.26
Potential profit: $2.5
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $3.13

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 21.3%
Current value: $25.5
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $94.5
Multiplier: 4.71x
User PnL: $15.54

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $9.39
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $101.72
Multiplier: 11.83x
User PnL: -$0.61

Yes position

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $54.55
Potential profit: $54.55
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 38%
Current value: $11.39
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $18.62
Multiplier: 2.64x
User PnL: -$5.12

No position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $4.02
Potential payout: $23
Potential profit: $18.98
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$2.83

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 19.7%
Current value: $3.34
Potential payout: $17
Potential profit: $13.66
Multiplier: 5.09x
User PnL: -$1.59

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 20.7%
Current value: $3.11
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $11.9
Multiplier: 4.83x
User PnL: -$2.45

No position

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $10.05
Potential payout: $10.64
Potential profit: $0.59
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $9.35
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $0.65
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$0.21

No position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 94.8%
Current value: $5.09
Potential payout: $5.38
Potential profit: $0.28
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.09

No position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 88.2%
Current value: $4.62
Potential payout: $5.24
Potential profit: $0.62
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$0.38

No position

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $5.09
Potential payout: $5.21
Potential profit: $0.12
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.09

No position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 95.7%
Current value: $4.93
Potential payout: $5.15
Potential profit: $0.22
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: -$0.07

No position

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $4.9
Potential payout: $5.14
Potential profit: $0.24
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: -$0.1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Latvia position

Men's Group C - Germany vs. Latvia

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76K

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02K

No position

Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $814.56

No position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?

Ends Feb 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $581.99

George Washington Revolutionaries position

George Mason Patriots vs. George Washington Revolutionaries

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $440

Yes position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $326.59

Yes position

Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $269.55

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.6%
Multiplier: 18.02x
User PnL: $239.95

Yes position

Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $200

Yes position

Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $176.19

No position

Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $172.66

No position

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

Ends Feb 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $157.19

No position

US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.65

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.78

No position

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.55

No position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.75

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.32

Yes position

Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $59.63

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?