Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $64.06
- Potential payout
- $1.42K
- Potential profit
- $1.36K
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$60.82
Polymarket Trader
Paul.Dirac
0x2a57c798cebcd5f82008cfbd40fbbf6e47a91f06
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $788.39
- Realized PnL
- $1.53K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $18.96
- Potential payout
- $468.12
- Potential profit
- $449.16
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$11
No position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.2%
- Current value
- $166.21
- Potential payout
- $174.59
- Potential profit
- $8.38
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $33.15
No position
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $148.28
- Potential payout
- $149.93
- Potential profit
- $1.65
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $20.09
No position
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $129.4
- Potential payout
- $129.85
- Potential profit
- $0.45
- User PnL
- $3.57
Yes position
Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 41%
- Current value
- $44.07
- Potential payout
- $107.5
- Potential profit
- $63.43
- Multiplier
- 2.44x
- User PnL
- -$4.23
No position
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?
Ends Jul 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $90.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $9.5
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $24.5
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $76.87
- Potential payout
- $80.11
- Potential profit
- $3.24
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $14.48
Yes position
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?
Ends Jul 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $50.04
- Potential payout
- $54.69
- Potential profit
- $4.65
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $14.49
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $367.95
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170.1
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114.83
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $89.09
No position
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.17
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.89
No position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026??
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.95
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.32
No position
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.24
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.22
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.1
No position
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.94
No position
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.06
No position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.6
Yes position
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $31.5
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.31
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.45
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $18.98
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.42
Yes position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53%
- Multiplier
- 1.89x
- User PnL
- $17.96
Yes position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.8
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.21
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?Yes 44.9% 107.5 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes 4.9% 176.85 shares
- Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?No 97.5% 123.85 shares
- Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?No 66% 1.38 shares
- Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?Yes 36.8% 95.76 shares
- Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?Yes 39% 30 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No 96.8% 100 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No 85% 100 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Yes 15% 200 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Yes 16% 200 shares
- Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?No 65% 14.13 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No 94% 100 shares